Is Oregon Overpriced in the PAC 12?
The #2 Oregon Ducks are currently 23-point favorites in their Thursday Night showdown with Arizona that will be nationally televised by ESPN. That’s their second Pac 12 game of the 2014 season. Oregon was pretty unimpressive two weeks ago in a 38-31 win on the road at Washington State, where they were also 23-point favorites.
Starting a season 0-1 ATS in your conference is no big deal. Particularly if you won the game straight up and are still favored to win your division, your conference, and in the view of some analysts, the national championship. But, that 0-1 ATS start is important to sports bettors because it continues a trend we saw last season.
OREGON’S LAST SIX PAC 12 GAMES OF 2013
Oregon (-40) beat Washington State 62-38 (missed by 16 points)
Oregon (-23.5) beat UCLA 42-14 (barely covered)
Oregon (-10) lost at Stanford 26-20 (missed by 16 points, should have been worse)
Oregon (-28.5) beat Utah 44-21 (missed by 5.5 points)
Oregon (-20.5) lost to Arizona 42-16 (missed by 46.5 points!!!)
Oregon (-24) beat Oregon State 36-35 (missed by 25 points)
That’s a 1-5 ATS record to close the season…which is now 1-6 ATS the last seven league games with the 16 point miss two weeks ago against Washington State. Note that five of the seven games were DOUBLE-DIGIT non-covers! Oregon is consistently missing the spread by a mile.
Well, they are in their last seven conference games. Oregon did play great in the second half against Michigan State in their 46-27 victory. And, Oregon won its bowl game last year vs. Texas, despite being disappointed about only earning an Alamo Bowl bid when they had been dreaming of championships.
Handicappers have to think very seriously about the possibility that the CONFERENCE has started to figure out how to at least slow down the vaunted Oregon attack. It hasn’t changed much the past several years…and everyone’s seen it quite a bit now. Plus, coaches are prone to talk to each other for help when a bully is dominating a conference (you wouldn’t believe how much Vegas oddsmakers talk about trying to slow down WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!).
It’s still difficult to beat Oregon. But, it’s now possible to at least slow them down in a way that makes it very hard for the Ducks to match high market expectations. Oddmakers price Oregon like a championship caliber team that loves running up the score on people. Oregon has to play nearly perfect every week to cover those high spreads. That’s hard to do if:
- Opponents can now slow you down better than in the past
- Your own defense is often soft, porous, and coasting
- You have a huge target on your back
- You’ve developed issues on the road that make you upset fodder
This week’s game isn’t on the road. And, Oregon has HUGE revenge off a humiliating loss to Arizona last season. So, you’re unlikely to see me make a dramatic upset call on the visiting Wildcats for my clients (I’m still deciding as I write this if I’m going to release a play in that game, or pass and focus on Vikings/Packers and the two other college matchups). But, I’m certainly going to be watching Arizona’s defense to see if they can slow down Oregon the way they did on their home field last year.
And, I’ll be scouting out possible upset calls for LATER in the season. Oregon could certainly have pointspread trouble, and possibly straight up trouble at UCLA, California, Utah, and Oregon State later this season. Some of you casual fans may find that hard to believe. Oregon wasn’t supposed to lose at Arizona last year and got obliterated! And, don’t forget that Stanford has had Oregon’s number recently. Stanford visits Eugene a month from now on Saturday November 1.
I can assure you that something very special is planned for this coming weekend in college football. I don’t want to be too specific. But, you should notice that the loaded SEC West has the top six teams all playing each other in nationally televised marquee matchups. And, Stanford from our Pac 12 discussion today has a huge game at Notre Dame. WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is going to make headlines!
We’ll be building bankroll between now and the weekend with the baseball playoffs beginning Tuesday Night, plus the resumption of football on Thursday and Friday Nights. My game day BEST BETS in all sports are always available in all sports right here at the website. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Be sure to ask about my postseason baseball!
See you again later this week to talk pro football. Now, kick off October in money-making fashion with the only man in the sports betting industry to have a star on the “Walk of Fame” here in Las Vegas. It’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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