Tony Salinas on Denver-Seattle
Denver Visits Seattle in Super Bowl Rematch
By Vegas Highroller Tony Salinas:
What I’d like you to be thinking about as you watch Sunday afternoon’s Super Bowl rematch featuring the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, is that BOTH teams may be overrated here in the 2014 season.
That’s right. Stop listening to the media hype about how great Seattle is…and how Denver is the only logical team in the AFC to have a real chance at going to the Super Bowl this season. Start thinking about LINE VALUE. Bettors so far in 2014 have been getting the best of it by fading these two Super Bowl teams.
Seattle covered its season opener against Green Bay (who played scared, and then didn’t impress the next week against the NY Jets even with extra preparation time). But, Seattle was then badly outplayed by San Diego in a 30-21 road loss. The normally stingy defense let Philip Rivers convert 58% of third down tries while not forcing a single turnover. Frankly, Seattle is a mediocre team at best when not taking the ball away or forcing punts.
Denver jumped ahead of Indianapolis in its season opener, but couldn’t hold enough of their big lead to cover the spread. Denver then failed to get the money as a home favorite against Kansas City the next week. Two home games for the Broncos on a very strong home field, but victory margins of only 7 points each time for a team that’s supposed to win nothing but blowouts at home.
Combined, that’s 1-3 ATS, only 25% success vs. the number.
I don’t want to suggest that these two teams are going to register at 25% for the full season. But, I do believe that you may be getting 7-to-5 of 8-to-5 the best of it by fading them as a general rule. Among the reasons why:
*The market always prices them to play at a peak level.
*Square public bettors often drive those lines even higher
*Champions always have a target on their backs
*Champions know they have to pace themselves for the long haul
I’ve talked about all of those factors quite a bit over the years here at this website, and in sports besides pro football. You know why I keep talking about them? Because they’re all TRUE! And, because too many of you aren’t taking the advice to heart as much as you should. I’ll bet a lot of you reading this lost with Denver in both of those home games I just mentioned. You thought the line against Indy was too cheap. You thought Kansas City was horrible and was going to get routed.
It’s time for you to learn how pro bettors beat the markets over time. Guys like me who have been winning for decades do so by fading the public. If you see me at a poker table here in Las Vegas, I’m probably winning money from tourists who don’t know the fundamentals of proper play. When I’m winning money as a football bettor, it’s by taking the free points being given away in the line and putting them right in my pocket.
Look, both Seattle and Denver will win some blowouts over the next several weeks. My point is, outside of today when they play each other, they HAVE to win convincingly every time to cover Vegas spreads. They’re unlikely to do that better than half the time THIS year when everyone is targeting them as they pace themselves for projected postseason runs.
I may have a selection for paying clients in Sunday’s meeting, so I’m not going to talk too much specifically about the game. Clearly Denver is in a great revenge spot. It’s rare to get Peyton Manning and the points. The problem is, Denver could have been getting a few touchdowns in the Super Bowl and still wouldn’t have covered. Now they’re trying to win on the ROAD! If the personnel of both teams is playing at peak intensity, then Seattle is probably the right side because their strength stops Denver’s strength. It only takes Seattle to be a step slow, though, for this to become a thriller. Seattle was probably 2-3 steps too slow last week, and there were stretches in the win over Green Bay that were pretty questionable too.
My final slate for Sunday will be available for credit card purchase by clicking here in the hours leading up to kickoff. I hope you’ll GET THE BEST OF IT WITH TONY SALINAS today and every week through the season. If you’d like details about my seasonal football packages and postseason baseball, call the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-888-777-4155.
Enjoy the Super Bowl rematch. Make the day even better by winning with a man who’s made his living GETTING THE BEST OF IT as a GAMBLER in Las Vegas for DECADES. I moved here before most of you were born. I made more money last week at my job than you did in the last year at yours!
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