Wayne Root: Keys for NFL Win Totals
Wayne Root: Keys for NFL Win Totals
I had originally planned to talk about the NBA in this report. But, the market is confidently pricing the pre-series favorites to advance into the Finals. That doesn’t give THE KING OF UPSETS much to talk about just yet. And, if I’m planning on making a huge underdog release over Memorial Day Weekend, I’m certainly not going to tell you who that is here!
With the early numbers coming up in Las Vegas this week for NFL win totals, this seemed like a great time to talk about the keys to finding Cinderella stories in pro football. There are always holes to be found in this market. I know some of you don’t like letting sportsbooks hold your money for six months. But, if they’re giving it back to you at a substantial profit at the end of the season…it’s better than keeping your money in a bank!
You know that I prefer focusing on surprise teams who are likely to make a big jump forward. Here’s what you should be looking for:
LOSING TEAMS IN 2013 WHO CHANGED HEAD COACHES
There are SEVEN new head coaches in the NFL this season. At least a few of them are going to spark changes in fortune for their franchises. It happens every season. Study all seven teams to see if the skill set of the new man melds well with the skill sets of the players he inherits.
Bill O’Brien in Houston (2-14)
Jay Gruden in Washington (3-13)
Lovie Smith in Tampa Bay (4-12)
Mike Pettine in Cleveland (4-12)
Mike Zimmer in Minnesota (5-10-1)
Jim Caldwell in Detroit (7-9)
Ken Whisenhunt in Tennessee (7-9)
I can assure you that there are teams on that list who I will be backing in the Preseason come August, and in early season regular season action before the market catches up. Betting Regular Season Win totals lets you exploit handicapped improvement before the market even knows its coming.
INJURY-PRONE TEAMS IN 2013 WHO ARE DUE FOR BETTER LUCK
It’s easy to forget once a season is in the books that a team who struggled because of injuries will be positioned to bounce back. Everyone pretty much recognizes that with start quarterbacks. But, when an offensive line was ravaged with injuries, or a defensive secondary (particularly in the modern game), most bettors barely even notice. YOU need to notice!
Review the injury data from last season with an eye toward projecting who’s going to play much better in 2014 with a normal health report. It’s very difficult (some would say impossible) to predict in advance which teams will get hurt by injuries. You can at least know which teams probably won’t get nailed twice in a row with bad luck.
YOUNG QUARTERBACKS FROM 2013 DUE TO IMPROVE
There’s always been a “learning curve’ for young NFL quarterbacks that smart handicappers have been able to exploit. This is most dramatic for young starters…who often make significant leaps forward from year to year. Veterans tend to plateau. It’s easy for Vegas oddsmakers to price a plateau. They tend to be slowfooted when projecting what’s going to happen with younger quarterbacks. Go back through last year’s stats and right down the age and Passer Rating for projected starters. That exercise by itself will help you visualize the coming season for all 32 teams. In particular, it will help you find a few teams positioned to surge forward.
I’ll talk more football through the summer on these pages. I’m expecting that the NBA Playoffs will be our topic next time after I see what happens through the holiday weekend in the conference championships. So much going on in baseball too. Isn’t it great to be a Las Vegas sports bettor at this time of year!
THE KING OF LAS VEGAS will be happy to show you how it’s done. You can purchase my BEST BETS every single day in Major League Baseball, and the NBA Playoffs right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my services bets suits your individual needs, please talk to one of my representatives in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS It’s never to soon to ask about early-bird packages for pro and college football.
Whatever the sport…whatever the month…whatever your needs…the only man in the sports betting industry with a star on the Vegas “walk of fame” is at your service! It’s time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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