Looking Back at QB's From 2012 NFL Draft
Looking Back at QB's From 2012 NFL Draft
By Wayne Root:
With all the media hype about the 2014 NFL Draft going on right now (I'm writing this on Friday morning, after the first round is complete but before the later rounds have started), I wanted to add some context to all the hype about quarterbacks.
This is right up my alley as THE KING OF UPSETS because many year-to-year surges in the standings are caused by young quarterbacks turning into stars. In fact, we've had so many do just that very recently that now too many pundits assuming Cleveland will become relevant with Johnny Manziel at the helm, and that even Minnesota might make a leap back into at least the Wildcard picture with Teddy Bridgewater.
Let's took a look at the 2012 draft two summers ago…one that's already very well known for its' quarterbacks.
2012 Quarterbacks Drafted in First Six Rounds
Andrew Luck (first pick overall)
Robert Griffin III (second pick overall)
Ryan Tannehill (eighth pick overall)
Brandon Weeden (#22 pick overall)
Brock Osweiler (Round Two, #57 pick overall)
Russell Wilson (Round Three, #75 pick overall)
Nick Foles (Round Three, #88 pick overall)
Kirk Cousins (Round Four, #102 pick overall)
Ryan Lindley (Round Six, #185 pick overall)
There was little doubt that Andrew Luck was going to be a star in this league. Some wondered if he'd live up to the hype. But, everybody understood that he was NFL caliber when he took his first snap. He's still on pace to be another Peyton Manning. RGIII was recognized as a great talent, though there were some concerns about whether he was too reliant on the run. That pick wasn't seen as a huge gamble for the Redskins.
Tannehill was considered a reach by many at #8, and that looks justified because he's still mistake-prone after two years as a starter and far from a high impact player. Brandon Weeden was a big reach at #23 given that he would finally have to play against guys his own age!
But, before you can write off the rest of the class, you see current Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson down in the third round, and Nick Foles just behind him as he embarks on what's shaping up as an exciting career with the Philadelphia Eagles.
And, THAT brings us to the key to anticipating big turnarounds in the NFL. It's not JUST the quarterback. It's the combination of quarterback, team, head coach, system, and the nuances of how they all fit together that create money-making opportunities for sports bettors.
- Maybe Blake Bortles is going to be a star for Jacksonville. What is it about the QB/coach/system/dynamics that would lead you to believe that's going to happen right away? Personally, I'm skeptical because Bortles didn't have a college career that suggested definite success as a pro (he had bad games in a bad conference!), and because there's no evidence yet that anyone in Jacksonville knows what they're doing. I'd say there's a 10-15% chance of a very pleasant surprise here. This isn't the Colts drafting Luck, even though it's only two spots different on the ladder.
- Maybe Johnny Manziel will do for Cleveland what Russell Wilson did for Seattle. The Manziel camp has sure done a good marketing job of applying that storyline. Nobody wanted the next Tim Tebow. Everyone wants the next Russell Wilson! Because I like much of what's going on in Cleveland (particularly with their defense last year), I think there is a decent chance Cleveland takes a meaningful step forward this season. I won't go out on any limbs just yet. Maybe by August I'll have a pronouncement of two.
- Maybe Teddy Bridgewater is just want Minnesota needed. They thought Christian Ponder was going to be that guy. The issues with Bridgewater are that he played in a bad conference, and that he underachieved badly on his pro day. Remember…this was supposed to be a surefire top five pick at one point. He barely landed in the first round. Personally, I'm still skeptical of Minnesota's management…and I think this is more likely to be a Tannehill or Ponder-type situation rather than an immediate success. Maybe 20-25% chance for a very pleasant surprise here.
I'll more football when we get closer to the season. Wanted to write this up today because you'll be watching the draft Friday Night and Saturday…and because you and your friends will be talking NFL for the days and weeks to come.
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Back to basketball and baseball talk next week on these pages. Be sure you're building your bankrolls for the coming football season by winning big with THE KING OF LAS VEGAS! It's always the right time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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