Early Tip Times an Equalizer for Dogs
Early Tip Times an Equalizer for Dogs
By Wayne Root:
I haven't had a chance to talk about this yet in the new college basketball season. Wanted to make sure I put in on your radar for the rest of this month and then the tournaments in March. If you like betting on underdogs, it can be very lucrative to focus on the earliest start times on Saturdays, Sundays, and then any day where there's afternoon tournament action next month.
The early start times serve as an "equalizer" that help reduce the advantage of superior teams, while allowing less talented but more disciplined teams to take advantage.
Why are early start times bad for favorites?
- They're often flat because it's hard to play with peak intensity that early
- Vegas prices favorites on the assumption of intensit
- Most regular season games are at night
- The day games that do happen usually aren't in that earliest slot
- Crowds are subdued because nobody's fully awake yet
- Crowds haven't had time to imbibe anything that would make then rowdy!
Sometimes it's completely uncharted territory for a favorite. Sometimes, it's a position they've only been in one or two times prior that season. It doesn't take much to turn a made jump shot into one that bounces off the rim...or to take a step away from rotations on defense.
I tend to focus more on underdogs than favorites. If you're the type to bet mostly favorites, be sure you're VERY confident you're going to get peak intensity from any chalk in those earliest tips.
Why early start times are good for smart, disciplined underdogs?
- They don't lose a step, because they're still focused
- They're naturally fired up because underdogs like scoring upsets
- The lack of crowd energy at a road site helps them
- Smelling blood from a flat favorite only energizes them more
Note that I used "smart" and "disciplined" as qualifiers for the best underdog plays. If a dog has undisciplined players, they're going to be just as messed up by the early start time as the favorites are. Or, if a bad team has already thrown in the towel on the season, they might barely show up for a game like this. Bettors want a factor that cuts the favorite down to size...not one that cuts both teams down at the same time.
THE KING OF UPSETS has always told you that the best underdog plays involve quality, motivated puppies facing flat favorites. These early start times create a lot of flat favorites. It's your job to find the best underdogs who are capable of taking advantage.
I would also like to point out that betting these dogs in THE FIRST HALF can provide a lot of free money to your portfolio. It's amazing how often these dogs win the first half outright. Maybe the favorite finally wakes up in the last 20 minutes. Maybe they don't. You're won/lost percentage in first halves will be even higher than in full games. And, smart handicapping usually creates at least 54% to 57% in full games if you're finding the right dogs (pickier pickers might score even higher).
If you haven't been paying attention to this already, I strongly encourage you to start monitoring it this weekend. There are several early starts Saturday and Sunday. That will continue through the rest of the season. Come tournament time, pay particular attention to the following:
- Flat favorites from the "middle of the pack" in their conferences
- Neutral site games played in virtually empty arenas
- Favorites who tend to win on raw talent rather than discipline and brains
Many of the biggest upset blowouts (where the dog wins EASILY) are created by the combinations you see above. The flat, undisciplined favorite is down 20 before they know what happened to them, and they don't have time to catch up.
The best dogs to take in early tournament tip offs:
- Motivated underdogs from "the middle of the pack" in their conference
- Underdogs who have clear scoring weaponry inside and out
- Underdogs who have single or double revenge from the regular season
Write those down now and save them. I may decide against repeating the "early tip" angle in an article next month because I want to protect the lines for my clients.
Whether it's early games...midday games...late games...WHATEVER! You can count on getting the best plays on the board from THE KING OF LAS VEGAS! You can always get my BEST BETS right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about extended service, talk to my representative in the Vegas-Sports-Masters office during normal business hours at 1-877-ROOT-WINS.
I'll see you again early next week to talk more basketball. February is just flying by, and MARCH MADNESS will be hear before you know it. Don't make the mistake of waiting for the tournaments to arrive before getting serious about basketball. You should be building your bankrolls NOW! It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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