Most Overrated and Underrated Preseason Teams
Most Overrated and Underrated Preseason Teams
By Wayne Root:
It's always important when you begin to plan out your NFL Preseason attack to keep in mind the types of teams who are traditionally overrated or underrated by the legal betting markets. Since the exhibition slate begins Sunday Night with the Dallas Cowboys facing the Miami Dolphins in the Hall-of Fame game in Canton, Ohio...that means you need to do this now!
I'm not going to talk about specific teams in terms of my own plans for the 2013 season. I need to protect that information for my clients. I will talk about types of teams that you need to be thinking about.
GENERALLY OVERRATED IN THE PRESEASON
- Playoff teams from the prior season
- Teams who get a lot of media coverage
- Teams with established STAR quarterbacks
- Teams who focus on "smash mouth" defense and running the ball
The first few are pretty obvious. The public loves betting on high profile teams and star quarterbacks. Las Vegas oddsmakers know this, and stack the line against those teams. You're typically not going to get good line value going against popular media teams and last year's playoff contestants. Now, there will be a few exceptions here and there. Some successful coaches have always prioritized at least one or two games in the Preseason...particularly the dress rehearsals in Week Three. But, even then, you'll be paying a premium to bet those teams because the public wants to bet them too!
The fourth situation on my list comes from what I've noticed in recent seasons. If a head coach emphasizes running the ball on offense and playing physical defense...then his first teamers will do a good job of that during their limited time on the field...his second-teamers will hold their own...but then everybody after that is going to be in big trouble. Many Preseason games are won and covered in the fourth quarter. The backup quarterbacks on these types of teams are notoriously bad at driving the field. There aren't enough great defenders to go around for three flights of top quality stop units. Smash mouth teams can't be trusted to win the third or fourth quarter of a Preseason game...therefore you must avoid them unless you have GREAT information about a particular week or matchup.
GENERALLY UNDERRATED IN THE PRESEASON
- The very worst teams from the prior season
- Teams who get limited media coverage
- Teams with mediocre starting quarterbacks
- Teams with offensive minded coaches who missed last year's playoffs
For the first three on the list, we have another example of one of the Golden Rules in Las Vegas. "The teams that nobody wants to bet on are the teams YOU should bet on!" Bad teams from the prior season often come out with a chip on their shoulder and a sense of purpose (and sometimes a new head coach!). Teams with mediocre starting quarterbacks have often brought in legitimate threats to take his job...and "quarterback wars" are rarely a bad thing in August because you're going to get offensive production for most of the game.
Why would I look at offensive-minded coaches? Doesn't the public love to bet on them? Well, that's why I included the caveat about missing the playoffs. Offensive-minded head coaches tend to get yards and points all through the postseason. They're running a pass-heavy attack and the backup quarterbacks want to show that they can thrive in that system. If that kind of team runs into an opponent that's going through the motions, then it's going to be a blowout. And, any high octane team that missed the playoffs the prior year is much more focused on getting the job done this time around. Line value still matters, and I'll pay attention to it. But, I love getting an offense that's going to move the ball in the second half on my side. I don't believe the markets have adjusted yet to this particular angle regarding full-game Preseason handicapping. Win the second half, GET THE MONEY!
I'm really looking forward to the 2013 Preseason. I already have my eye on a few situations that look good as gold. You can purchase my top NFL plays from now through the Super Bowl right here at this website. I also have seasonal packages that provide the most bang for your buck. If you're not sure which of my programs best suits your individual needs, call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946.
NFL Football arrives Sunday Night...that means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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