Should You Bet Early College Football Lines?
Should You Bet Early College Football Lines?
By Wayne Root:
Las Vegas continues to find new ways to make money. A few days ago, the Golden Nugget posted early pointspreads in almost 250 college football games and started taking bets. The games aren't until September! But the queues at the sportsbook were long...and avid sports fans and sharp bettors were taking their shots at the relatively low betting limits.
Should YOU be betting those "Game of the Year" options if you live in Las Vegas or are planning a trip this summer?
Hey, there's no better person to discuss this than THE KING OF LAS VEGAS! I'm the only man in the handicapping or sports betting industry who has a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in town. If there's an edge to be found in this field, I'm going to be the man who finds it. Here's my advice on betting these early college football lines.
THERE ARE NO LOCKS IN JUNE!
You can bet for value...but don't overestimate your own abilities to see the future. There's plenty of time for your starting quarterback to get injured...your starting receiver to get suspended from his season opener for academic reasons or some off-the-field misbehavior...or for all sorts of key injuries to happen before any midseason game.
Part of what you're betting on early is that nothing bad is going to happen between now and then. How confident are you that your team will avoid bad luck? Sorry, it's impossible to be confident that your team will avoid bad luck! Is it better to take a dog at +6 in June, or at +4.5 a couple of days before kickoff if you know everyone is ready to go? That +6 in June might turn into +10 if there are injuries, or if the team just didn't turn out to be what was expected.
IT'S SMART TO FOCUS ON KEY NUMBERS
You hear this all the time in football. But it's very important to keep in mind for these early games. If you can get a favorite at -6.5 or -7 now that you expect will be much higher by kickoff...then it's smart to make a move during the summer and hope for the best on the injury front. That's easily the BEST reason to bet early from a smart handicapping standpoint. You're trying to positioned yourself properly around the key numbers in games that you expect will be priced differently at kickoff.
Take Favorites just below or at -3, -7, or -10 if you think the lines will go up later
Take Underdogs just above or at +3, +7, or +10 if you think the lines will come down later
The public generally takes favorites in the days and hours leading up to kickoff. Much of the "sharp" action in Vegas last weekend involved professional wagerers taking positions on inexpensive favorites in games where the lines are likely to go up later.
LOOK FOR "SANDWICH" GAMES OR "LETDOWN" GAMES NOW!
Generally speaking the numbers that went up last weekend were based on Power Ratings or perceptions of how the public usually bets those teams...NOT on the schedule dynamics that will be in play once those games arrive on the schedule. If you live in Vegas or are making a trip soon, you need to go through the schedules of all the major board teams and look for obvious letdown spots. There may be a team that's likely to be FLAT AS A PANCAKE on game day because of who they just played the prior week...but this early "Game of the Year" line doesn't factor that in yet.
You've been doing this long enough to understand how intangibles work. Make them work for you in this early betting.
To sum it up...be conservative because so much can happen between now and kickoff with your personnel...focus on key numbers...and focus on schedule dynamics that will be in play regardless of who the personnel is once the date arrives.
You can be sure that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is looking forward to the coming football season. But, being a professional winner is a 365-day-a-year job! You can keep making big money with me on basketball and baseball right here on this website with your credit card. If you want to talk turkey about early bird football, or find out more about summer packages, call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946 for answers.
If it's happening in Las Vegas, I'll find a way for you to make money. That means it's ALWAYS time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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