Finding Dogs That Bite
Finding Dogs That Bite
By Wayne Root:
If you've been reading my tips for betting underdogs on these pages over the years, you know that one of my main points of emphasis is to find underdogs who can score! It's not enough for a team to be in"the right spot" for a good underdog performance. They have to have the offensive ability to get the job done in that situation. This is true in college and pro football (where my biggest upset calls often involve talented offenses), college and pro basketball, and in Major League Baseball.
Do you know who the best offenses are right now in the Majors? You probably have a pretty good sense of things. But, if you're like most handicappers...you spend most of your time looking at starting pitchers. If the starter has a bad ERA, you want to bet against him as a favorite no matter who the underdog is. That may work sometimes. It works less often than most realize.
The best underdog bets involve vulnerable favorites AND dangerous dogs. This is really important in baseball because there's nothing worse than losing what seemed like a smart underdog bet 2-1, 3-2, or 4-3 because you hung close but didn't have enough pop to get runs on the board. To help you make smarter underdog choices, here's a look at runs-per-game numbers for all 30 Major League teams heading into Memorial Day action.
RUNS SCORED PER GAME
5.1: Baltimore, Cleveland
4.9: Boston, Colorado
4.8: Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Cincinnati
4.7: Texas, Oakland
4.6: LA Angels, San Francisco
Let's cut it off there at 4.5 runs. Getting any of those teams listed as an underdog is going to deserve your attention in my view. I'm not saying to bet them blindly as dogs. And...most of those are respected teams who will rarely be getting big payoffs. But...I'll tell you what...you can easily find situations where they're going to win 60% of the time at prices on the right side of pick-em. It takes a very strong pitcher to shut down those offenses. Take them on the road at even money or better against non-aces and you're likely to be very happy with the results.
4.3: NY Yankees
4.1: Kansas City, Arizona, San Diego
4.0: NY Mets, Milwaukee
This group is prone to slumps that you have to avoid. But, they've also proven that they can get runs up on the board against vulnerable pitchers in good hitting parks. You WILL get some nice payoffs on teams like this, particularly the smaller market teams who are traditionally disrespected by the markets. Seriously consider looking at any of these teams on the road in hitter's parks against any #3, #4, or #5 starting pitcher of an opposing favorite.
3.9: Houston, Pittsburgh, Chicago Cubs
3.7: Chicago White Sox
3.4: LA Dodgers
3.5: Washington, Philadelphia
Did you realize Washington had such a bad offense? No wonder they're not in the playoff picture yet! This is a group I'd be very careful with, because they lack the pop needed to really lock up a smart underdog bet. The Astros are getting so disrespected in the Vegas line that you can be a bit more liberal with them. And, the Cubs are scoring at home this year...where they will sometimes be home underdogs. Generally though, wait until you see evidence of improvement before making serious bets on these teams in underdog situations. THIS is the type of team that will make sense on paper, before losing 3-2 or 4-3. There are no moral victories in sports betting!
If you'd like to get my best underdog, favorite and Over/Under plays in baseball every day, you can do so here at this website. I've also got seasonal packages for all types of players. Read through the details and pick out the one that best suits your individual needs. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office during regular business hours at 1-877-766-8946. The rest of NBA playoff action can be added to any baseball program for a nominal fee.
I have more documented upset calls than any other man in the handicapping industry. That means I'm perfectly suited for baseball handicapping...where underdogs HAVE to win the game to earn the cash! Stop losing heartbreakers on the diamonds. Start winning with THE KING OF LAS VEGAS WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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