What to Expect Opening Weekend in the NBA
What to Expect Opening Weekend in the NBA
By Wayne Root:
If you've lived in Las Vegas a long time...which I have since I'm THE KING OF LAS VEGAS...you hear a lot of strategies for handicapping the NBA playoffs. Many have merit. But, it's dangerous to fall in love with any one strategy because the sport is always evolving.
Among the strategies I've heard:
Take the DOG in the first game. If they don't cover, DOUBLE UP ON THE DOG in the second game. This is an attempt to grind out at least one unit of profit from the tendency for playoff games to be close. You either cash your ticket in the first game...or you cash that second game and still end up with about one unit of profit.
What's the problem? When it doesn't work, it costs you three units plus juice! You're risking 3.3 units to win 1.0 unit in the opener, or profit 0.8 units if you lose the first and win the second. I've appeared on CNBC and Fox Business enough to tell you that's a poor return on risk. In some years, it does grind out a profit. But, it can be a disaster if you have good teams who are dominant at home.
I'll consider this approach in an evenly matched series where I expect a split or at least two nailbiters. Even then, I'm not fond of risking three units while trying to win one.
- PASS the first game, then take whoever just lost the previous game for the rest of the series. This is an attempt to have your money on the most motivated team in every game...backing the bounce-back squad while fading the team most likely to fall back to earth.
What's the problem? First, passing the entire first weekend probably isn't smart because there usually at least one or two VERY good bets. You should never pass up a great bet! The second problem is that we're now seeing some of the best teams do their best to get a first round series over with quickly. This strategy can go 0-3 or 1-3 running into that kind of buzzsaw. A third problem is that bettors already tend to focus their action on the team that just lost, which has caused oddsmakers to adjust accordingly. The line value isn't what it used to be if you're hoping to play this angle.
I'm not going to tell you the approaches that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT uses because I have to protect that information for my clients. I'm happy to tell you why other things won't work...but I'm not going to give away what does in a free website article. I can tell you that I use a mix of strategies that help find live underdogs and favorites positioned to win blowouts. You may recall that last year's opening weekend had a few from each category.
LAST YEAR'S LIVE DOGS
Orlando (+9.5) shocked Indiana 81-77
Dallas (+8) almost stunned Oklahoma City in a 99-98 loss
LA Clippers (+5) rallied to upset Memphis 99-98 (35-13 in fourth quarter!)
Indiana would go on to give Indiana a very tough playoff battle down the road...but they lost their first playoff game as a huge favorite! Oklahoma City would go on to represent the Western Conference in the League Finals after almost stubbing their toe in embarrassing fashion out of the gate.
LAST YEAR'S DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITE COVERS
Miami (-9) beat New York 100-67
LA Lakers (-4.5) beat Denver 103-88
Miami sure set the tone for its championship run with that opening salvo. Sad to realize that Kobe Bryant won't be in the playoffs this year...and to remember that it was opening weekend last year when Derrick Rose got hurt for the Chicago Bulls against Philadelphia. What new major stories are about to break in the 2013 playoffs?
I'm very confident there will be a surprise or two this weekend...and I also have my eye on a couple of potential blowouts. You can purchase my top plays every day here at the website with your credit card. If you're not sure which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please call my handicapping office for additional guidance at 1-877-766-8946.
I'm the only handicapper with a star on the "Walk of Fame" in Las Vegas because I've been winning the biggest betting events in town for years. Whether it's the college football bowls and BCS championship...the Super Bowl...the World Series...March Madness...or the NBA Playoffs...my clients and I make big scores season after season. Are you going to risk losing on your own during the critical sports betting period that's about to begin? I hope not! It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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