I Warned You That Cinderella Would Know How to Shoot!
I Warned You That Cinderella Would Know How to Shoot!
By Wayne Root::
Last week I outlined the smartest handicapping options for finding Cinderella stories in the 2013 NCAA Tournament. I hope you took that advice to heart because vulnerable favorites fell...and it was Cinderella's who knew how to shoot who aggressively grabbed their glass slippers and headed on to the Sweet 16.
Here's what I said last week:
"Find underdogs who can score. Most big time upsets are triggered by either great shooting from behind the arc, or by a superstar for a small program having a huge game against a team that didn't prepare for him. Upsets are games that have to be WON. Cinderella grabs the slipper, she doesn't wait around to see if somebody's going to stick one on her foot."
Here are the biggest Cinderella surprises so far...
FLORIDA-GULF COAST turned took their "Dunk City" attitude from Fort Meyers, Florida and made it work in Florida vs. both Georgetown and San Diego State. You've seen the highlight reels from their aggressive style of play. Hey, I've watched a lot of Mountain West basketball this year. Do you know how hard it is to score 81 points on San Diego State?!
WICHITA STATE shot a blistering 14 of 26 from three-point land to take out #1 seed Gonzaga. That's a fraction under 54% on treys, which is the same as 81% on two-pointers. Gonzaga's short guards could barely get a hand in the face of Wichita shooters...so the Bulldogs got SHOCKED! Truly an amazing shooting display down the stretch in this high profile upset.
LASALLE'S lighting fast guards embarrassed Boise State in the play-in game, then did the same to Kansas State and Ole Miss through the weekend. Only great guards could lead a team to three wins in five days! Sunday, when the Explorers should have been tired against the Rebels, they shot almost 40% on treys (which was almost the same as 60% on two's), and 56% inside the arc.
OREGON is the only Cinderella story that came from a major conference. But, they were definitely a media longshot as a #12 seed who had to beat Oklahoma State and Saint Louis in succession to get this far. Many TV pundits had Saint Louis going to the Elite Eight or Final Four...and more would have if the Billikens hadn't been slotted on Louisville's pathway. Well, Oregon went 8 of 11 on three pointers Saturday (73% on treys!) in their blowout victory.
GRAB THE SLIPPER!
Can any of these teams keep it going through the weekend? Well, we know at least ONE will reach the Elite Eight because Wichita State and LaSalle are bracketed against each other. Florida-Gulf Coast and Oregon will have their hands full against Florida and Louisville respectively. I do expect at least one of those teams to shoot well again later this week. I can't be more specific because I need to protect the information for my clients.
But...I need to alert you to the fact that you now need to change the way you think about Cinderella's. Syracuse is now seen as a longshot because they're up against Indiana. Same with Arizona against Ohio State. How about Marquette getting six points from Miami? It's no longer just surging mid-majors and a disrespected #12 seed from the Pac 12. You need to think about upset potential from teams who have been favorites much of the year!
The same rules apply:
Look for favorites who have exploitable weaknesses so you can fade them. Indiana, Ohio State, and Miami all barely got through Sunday action. Did Syracuse, Arizona, and Marquette see what was exposed?
Look for dogs who can score so they can grab the grass slipper! How did Syracuse, Arizona, and Marquette perform against top defenses this year?
Look at where the games are being played. You'll note that the Michigan schools didn't get shocked in Auburn Hills last week. Kansas crushed North Carolina in Kansas City. Which dogs and favorites are best suited to this week's locale?
You know WAYNE ALLYN ROOT has big plans for the Sweet 16. We'll be building our bankrolls before then in the other tournaments and the NBA. Purchase my top plays daily right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my programs best suits your individual needs, call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946.Folks...THE KING OF LAS VEGAS is here to tell you that the surprises are just beginning! That means it's time for YOU go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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