Stop Being Surprised by Upsets!
Stop Being Surprised by Upsets!
By Wayne Root:
College basketball announcers and studio shows appear to be in a state of shock every night when more "upsets" make headlines across the national landscape. You'd think they would have learned by now!
Indiana loses to Minnesota
Michigan loses to Penn State
Florida loses to Tennessee
Syracuse loses to Marquette
Arizona loses to USC
Memphis loses to Xavier
I can assure you that more are on the way this weekend...next week...in the conference tournaments...and in the Big Dance. Don't forget that we had a pair of #2 seeds lose last year to #15 seeds in the Round of 64!
You longtime readers know that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is THE KING OF UPSETS with more documented outright upset calls than any other handicapper in the industry. I've always had an eye for when media shockers are coming. My eyes feel like they have X-Ray vision now because I'm seeing them all over the coming calendar!
The main reason for this right now is PARITY. Let me expand on that a bit because I haven't had a chance to discuss it much in my web articles.
The best teams aren't that strong. This isn't one of those seasons where future NBA superstars are leading teams to greatness in a one-and-done campaign. In fact, many NBA scouts are saying the next draft is going to be one of the worst ever. The media has to rank SOMEBODY. Teams who are top five this year would have been in the 10-15 range in previous seasons (possibly lower). Consistent dominating quality just isn't there for the media darlings. That means the media teams are going to lose more than is customary.
The mid-level teams can play. Everyone has a couple of three-point shooters. Everyone is deep enough into the season now to have a sense of spacing and ball movement. Some teams are better than others. But, ANYBODY is capable of having a hot shooting night. You do that against a big name team, and you score an upset.
Defenses have become much more consistent. This isn't an era of great defensive individual play. But, teams know how to rotate from off the ball to deny inside shooting opportunities. If a big name opponent comes in flat...they're going to turn the ball over or shoot in the 30% range against modern college defenses. They can't just throw the ball to a big guy and watch him dunk.
Officiating has evolved to where it really lets the kids play. There's a lot of clutching and grabbing. That becomes an equalizer because it's hard for the superior teams to show off their skills if the other guys are clutching and grabbing. The sport got tired of constant trips to the free throw line. Great teams often padded their victory margins at the free throw line!
This is why I'm so certain that all the "upsets" are going to continue. A lot of these game aren't even upsets...they're just overrated teams being legitimately outplayed by underrated teams in a sport that's lacking breakout superstars in an era where clutching and grabbing is allowed by defenses who know how to rotate. We're locked into that because rosters won't change, nor will officiating.
What also won't change is the market. It's still strongly influenced by media hype...and there's no way media hype is going to go down on "The Road to March Madness!" I'll be taking advantage of that every day right here at the website. You can purchase my standout plays daily or in longterm packages with your credit card. More information is available at my handicapping office, which you can reach at 1-877-766-8946.
What's tonight's media shocker going to be? How many will we have this weekend? Who are the most likely Cinderella stories that are going to develop through the Big Dance? The answers are easy to find when you go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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