Do's and Don'ts for Handicapping Games Involving Bubble Teams

Do's and Don'ts for Handicapping Games Involving Bubble Teams

By Wayne Root:

If you've been watching a lot of college basketball games on TV lately, you know the media can't shut up about all the bubble teams. All of this talk tends to influence the Las Vegas pointspreads because oddsmakers are listening to what's being said on the big screen TV's in their sportsbooks...and because bettors are often influenced by "need to win" scenarios.

One of the reasons WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is THE KING OF LAS VEGAS is because I know how to handle the nuances of college basketball. The biggest betting event is the Super Bowl. The second biggest event is MARCH MADNESS. My clients and I tune up for the Big Dance by wreaking havoc on soft lines that are on the board in the days leading up to all the tournaments.

Here are some DO'S and DON'TS for handicapping games involving bubble teams.

DO invest in bubble teams as UNDERDOGS
Nobody's picked more documented upsets in their handicapping careers than I have. Bubble teams can offer great value as late season underdogs because they're sky high just as bigger name opponents start thinking ahead to the postseason. Nothing gets a team more excited than the chance to spring an upset in a way that could also launch them into the NCAA tournament.

DON'T invest in bubble teams as pricey favorites
There's just no value in bubble teams as chalk because oddsmakers will give them credit for "need" just as the teams start to get conservative about how they play. You want your money on teams who are fired up in games where their victory will cover the spread. You DON'T want them trying to sit on a late six-point lead when you laid -9. The team is in a "need to win" spot, but not a "need to cover" spot. Big difference for sports bettors!

DO invest in bubble teams who also have REVENGE against that night's opponent
The best handicapping options usually involve a combination of factors lining up. The combination of bubble "need" and same season "revenge" often leads to a blowout that makes the pointspread irrelevant. If you can get a bubble team with revenge as an underdog or short favorite, you're in good shape percentage-wise.

DON'T invest in bubble teams whose ONLY motivation is that they're on the bubble
If you're not seeing a variety of intangibles line up on a bubble team, then it's best to leave them alone. They'll either win by just enough to break your heart. Or, they'll choke and fall apart in the final minutes. Both are terrible for your bankroll.

DO invest in bubble teams who have solid Power Ratings
These days there are multiple publicly available computer ratings that do a good job of rating teams. USA Today has had one for a few decades. ESPN invented a new one last year. Use these ratings to determine if you have a contender or a pretender on the bubble. There are some teams that the media has on the bubble who are actually top 30-35 caliber teams. They're on the bubble because of bad luck in close games or because they play in a brutal conference. You want a quality team going to war for you.

DON'T invest in bubble teams who grade out poorly in the computers
On the other hand, there are several bubble teams (particularly this year), who aren't even top 60 teams in the computers. They're on the bubble because ESPN is trying to manufacture a story to create ratings, or because a team has been lucky in close games or has faced a very soft schedule. Teams like this are mispriced because oddsmakers give them credit for "need" when the team doesn't have the ability to go out and get the job done. You want to fade overpriced teams, you sure don't want to bet on them.

I can assure you that I'll have a few big plays coming up through this week and next that will be applying the guidelines I wrote up for you today. I strongly invite you to join me daily right here at this website for my top plays. They're always available well before tipoff for credit card purchase. If you prefer talking to a live human, please call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946. Be sure to ask about MARCH MADNESS and full season NBA when you call.

I'm THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because I WIN WHEN IT MATTERS MOST! That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!

20
Aug

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