Oddsmakers Helpless Against February Madness
Oddsmakers Helpless Against February Madness
By Wayne Root:
You've seen once again this week that Las Vegas oddsmakers are helpless against the dynamics of what we can truly call "February Madness" this season. They're posting the wrong favorites. They're making lines way too high in mis-projected blowouts. They're scratching their heads just as much as the guys in the TV studios who keep trying to analyze conference races and NCAA Tournament projections.
What factors are causing the biggest headaches?
The most obvious one right now is that many teams are playing much worse now than they were earlier this season. Perceptions for oddsmakers, the public, and even professional wagerers can be overly influenced by how a team plays in the first third of a season. That's true in ALL sports, but is particularly true this year in college baskets.
Who's burning the most money? It's all the teams who were supposed to win their conferences because they looked so good in November and December. Oddsmakers and bettors just can't shake the impressions they formed when teams like Arizona, Duke, Kansas, and Louisville were playing so well out of the gate.
The second biggest factor is this year's parity. This sport always has an "anything can happen" feel to it. But, this year, there really is a lot of depth within the top 100 teams. When those hot starters cooled off...they fell back to a very crowded pack. Arizona wasn't anything special any more in the crowded Pac 12 race. Kansas suffered the same fate in the Big 12. In past years, cooling off made you vulnerable once or twice. THIS YEAR, it meant you were in danger almost every time you took the floor.
Oddsmakers and the public aren't used to seeing this much parity in the sport. It's that depth of parity that's at the heart of the high volume of underdog covers we've been seeing since conference play began.
Thirdly, there's been a real standardization in play across the sport in recent seasons. You either work the ball around slowly and hope to hit an open trey. Or, you push the ball up floor to try to get easy buckets in transition. Defenses have figured out how to slow down BOTH approaches! That's why you see so many slow games with both teams scoring in the low 50's. That's why you see high turnover games in the track meets.
We're at a stage in the sport's evolution where it's very hard to truly dominate your opponents. Your opponents know how to take away what you're trying to do. Unless they're in the group ranked in the 150-350 range nationally that just doesn't have the talent to compete with the big boys. Most of the major conference teams are in the top 150 this season.
Put all that together, and oddsmakers are really behind the eight-ball. They're posting numbers that are based on "old news" from November and December just as gridlock is hitting in full force. That's GREAT NEWS for handicappers and bettors like you and me. That means there are still big edges all over the board...and the results from Wednesday and Thursday show that the market still hasn't adjusted.
Many highly regarded teams are still very overrated compared to the field
Many other Dance contenders are playing their best ball of the year right now
Many bubble teams are bringing a sense of urgency to their games
Results are UPSIDE-DOWN with favorites who should be dogs and dogs who should be favorites
We'll continue to take advantage with my service plays all through the month of February and the rest of the season. You can purchase my top upset calls and all other big plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you're not sure which of my programs best suits your individual needs, please call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946.
I'm always a few steps ahead of the oddsmakers. I've proved that to you again this season! I'm the only man in the industry with a star on the "Walk of Fame' here in Las Vegas. If an oddsmaker ever gets one, his will naturally be a few steps behind mine!
Don't lose money betting based on what happened weeks ago. WIN BIG WITH THE KING OF LAS VEGAS! It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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