Finding Overrated College Basketball Teams
Finding Overrated College Basketball Teams
By Wayne Root:
I think the most striking things so far in this college basketball season is the high number of programs that have turned out to be very overrated. The TV networks are certainly disappointed about that. They're already locked into national telecasts that will feature ugly basketball! For sports bettors, ugly basketball can turn into beautiful winners if you're fading the right teams at the right time.
How do you find overrated teams?
First, track down the preseason and early season poll rankings, and count up all the teams who have plummeted down the ladder. Some are still hanging on in the top 25 (but barely), others no longer get any votes. The wagering public was so obsessed with football during November, December, and early January, that they missed many of the big stories about teams struggling. Vegas lines are still strongly influenced by public perception...and the public STILL hasn't figured out how bad it's gotten for some programs. Sure, the lines have adjusted a few points by now. Some teams are 8-10 points worse in Power Ratings than expected!
Second, familiarize yourself with the straight-up standings in all the major conferences. I'm constantly surprised by how many basketball bettors don't know what's happening in conference races! Maybe you know about the disappointments in your local conference (the Pac 12 if you live out West like me, or maybe the Big East or Atlantic 10 if you live in the Northeast). Each and every conference on the board has at least one big disappointment right now that's impossible to miss if you're looking at the standings. You should be exploiting ALL of them, not just the handful you noticed in your own neck of the woods!
Thirdly, go through handicapping websites that post pointspread results for every team, and focus on teams who have done poorly all year, or in the month of January against the spread. Sometimes picking winners is as simple as betting against the teams who aren't covering. Oddsmakers are supposed to find a number that's the "equalizer."That's very difficult in college basketball when there are so many games. And, it's particularly difficult right now because a surprising number of teams aren't playing at projected levels.
Remember, the Vegas line is a reflection of how a team is "rated."Any team that's doing poorly against expectations is, by definition, overrated. You want to find overrated teams, you study poll movement, the standings, AND the pointspread results,
I've already nailed many outright upsets by fading overrated teams. My current read of the market suggests at least another 3-4 weeks of opportunities just with that approach alone. A lot of these teams are getting WORSE, and oddsmakers are still a few weeks behind the curve!
If you're afraid you're too far behind the curve to catch up, you can purchase my top plays every day right here at this website. Details on seasonal packages are available in my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946. Ask one of my representatives how you can add Super Bowl Sunday to any basketball program.
I'm known as THE KING OF UPSETS and THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because of my longterm success as a sports handicapper and sports bettor here in Nevada. I'm the only man in the industry with a star on the Vegas "Walk of Fame."If an oddsmaker ever gets one, his star will either be a few steps behind mine...or behind a curve!"Football is over, but basketball will be winning daily all the way through March Madness and the NBA playoffs. It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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