Are Championship Shockers Looming in NFL?
Are Championship Shockers Looming in NFL?
By Wayne Root:
:I'm known as THE KING OF UPSETS here in Las Vegas because I've had more documented upset calls than any other handicapper in the industry. And, part of what's created that legend is my ability to call for upsets in some of the most high profile games in football history!
Will I be stepping out with a shocker play this Sunday? I'm not going to tip my hand in advance because I have to protect that information for my clients. I can tell you that I'm 7-1 so far in the NFL playoffs...and that I will have a GAME OF THE YEAR caliber selection on Sunday that you can purchase here at the website.
Maybe I'll make an upset call, or maybe I won't. But, I can tell you what I've learned from past upsets on championship Sunday.
- First, the single biggest key for flat performances from favorites is overconfidence. They're obviously coming in off at least one playoff win (sometimes two), and they've been playing well all year or they wouldn't be favored when a conference title was on the line. If you get any sense that a team is taking the game for granted, you need to seriously look at the underdog.
That's always possible with any favorite above seven points (which is the case for New England this week), or with any team that won a blowout the week before (San Francisco outgained Green Bay 579-352!). Conference championship games aren't often beaten "clean" in terms of being the inferior team. They have to play below the projected norm to lose.
- Second, you need to make sure that your underdog can go hard for the full 60 minutes. Remember, I'm talking about making an UPSET CALL here. You can find underdog value for teams that fade in the final minutes, particularly against a high number. If you're going to stand on a soapbox and tell people the underdog is going to WIN straight up...you need to make sure they can go the distance.
This week, Baltimore could certainly be questioned because they're playing their third game in three weeks, and last week's battle at altitude in Denver lasted slightly more than five quarters. Atlanta won't be dealing with that kind of fatigue in their underdog role. But, they fell apart in the fourth quarter last week and barely won in the final moments. Maybe this isn't the year for an upset call. Maybe WAYNE ALLYN ROOT isn't even picking an underdog this Sunday!
- Third, you need to have a clear offensive option for controlling the game. You can't win if you don't score points. I'm all for "value" bets on a defensive dog. If you're going to call for an upset with a major bet, you need to outscore the opponent. I didn't earn my title as THE KING OF UPSETS with 10-9 finishes, or with 16-13 overtime thrillers. If you're betting a dog on the moneyline to win straight up, you need to be crystal clear in your own mind about how they're going to outscore the favorite.
The only handicapper with a star on the "Walk of Fame" here in Las Vegas will have his conference championship selections posted this weekend right here at this website. If you want to talk directly to one of my representatives about the big games or about combination packages with basketball, call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946.
By Sunday night, we'll all know for certain who's going to be playing in this year's Super Bowl. I'm very confident I already know! That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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