NFL Projections by Division
Handicapping News: NFL Projections by Division
When the "Regular Season Win" propositions come out in the NFL...they're usually structured in alphabetical order, or from high to low in terms of expected victories. Today, we're going to outline the projected divisional races by posting the numbers division-by-division.
We'll be using win totals that are a composite from what's available in Las Vegas and offshore.
New England 12
NY Jets 9 (Under -125)
Buffalo 8 (Under -140)
New England has the highest total of anyone in the AFC, which is par for the course during the Belichick/Brady era. The Jets are expected to be a Wildcard contender. Buffalo and Miami actually rank pretty well for teams projected to finish 3rd and 4th. The market says this is the toughest division in the AFC.
Baltimore 10 (Under -130)
Cleveland 5.5 (Under -140)
You'd have to think that one of Pittsburgh or Baltimore will make it past 10 victories. The question is, which one? Both reached 12 wins last year and the year before, but are expected to have tougher challenges in 2012. Did you recall that Cincinnati made it to 9 wins last year? Can the Red Rifle continue to improve?
Jacksonville 5.5 (Over -140)
The worst division in all of football according to market projections. Three of the four teams aren't expected to reach .500 even though they get a bunch of games against each other! Houston is a heavy favorite to coast to the crown...and will have a chance to threaten for the whole AFC if they can keep their quarterback healthy. The market has them second best in the AFC right now based on win projections.
San Diego 9
Denver 8.5 (Over -140)
Kansas City 8
There was a three-way tie for first place at 8-8 last year, and Kansas City finished fourth at 7-9. It's a balanced group to be sure. San Diego should have the horses to finish on top. That's true every year and Norv Turner finds ways to underachieve either in the regular season or the postseason.
Philadelphia 10 (Over -130)
NY Giants 9
Dallas 9 (Under -140)
Washington 6.5 (Under -140)
The media was talking about a Philadelphia dynasty last week. The Eagles better figure out how to get past the .500 mark first. They were only 8-8 last year when they had the talent of a juggernaut. An already fascinating division got even more fun when RGIII joined the fold in Washington.
Green Bay 12 (Under -140)
Chicago 9 (Over -130)
Green Bay is the New England of the NFC. Last year, that just meant that they were way overpriced in their first playoff game. The North has the most projected wins of any NFC division, and will certainly live up to its "black and blue" reputation in 2012.
New Orleans 9.5 (Over -130)
Atlanta 9.5 (Under -120)
Tampa Bay 6
The Saints will be quite a story this year. The franchise is at war with the commissioner. The quarterback had to fight to get his money. We'll either see an "us against the world" mentality that drives a great season, or an implosion that gets pretty ugly. Greg Schiano of Rutgers is the new coach at Tampa Bay. Tough to see that being a home run.
San Francisco 10
Arizona 7 (Under -130)
St. Louis 6
The worst division in the NFC, but not as bad as the AFC South. Arizona and Seattle both made runs at .500 records last year against fairly decent schedules. So, things are looking up for this group after years at laughingstock status.
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