The Zig Zag Theory
The Zig Zag Theory
By Tony Salinas:
Most of you know the main thrust of THE TONY SALINAS ZIG ZAG THEORY that I invented a few decades ago. But, you get some very important parts of it WRONG! Since we're coming up on the part that EVERYONE screws up, I figured it was time to come in and remind everyone how it works.
STEP ONE: Bet the home team in Game One
Many people forget this because everyone's focused on what you do after a team loses. One of the hidden keys to GETTING THE BEST OF IT with this approach is remembering that the first home game for a team brings peak effort and peak crowd intensity. The home fans are very excited in a series opener, and the players generally respond. You'll note that Game One hosts went 5-3 ATS in the first round this year, and it would have been 6-2 ATS if Memphis hadn't collapsed after building a huge lead in front of a fired up crowd.
STEP TWO: Bet the straight up loser from Game One in Game Two
Everyone gets this right. You're always betting the bounce back. History says you're supposed to do that even though there may be occasional stretches where it doesn't work out as well as you hoped. It's impossible to win every one of your Las Vegas bets. You're trying to get the best of it. That's worked out extremely well so far this year heading into tonight. Game One losers who have covered Game Two spreads are: Indiana, Dallas, Boston, Philadelphia, and Denver. New York either lost just barely or pushed for shoppers who found +10 against Miami. There are still two games left tonight to finish out the first set of rematches (Utah at San Antonio at LA Clippers at Memphis).
STEP THREE: Bet the HOME team in Game Three
This is what everyone messes up. For some reason, people think the "zig zag" theory means you skip the first game, then bet the bounce back in every other game of the series. Look, I invented THE TONY SALINAS ZIG ZAG THEORY, so I know how it works! You bet the home teams in Games One and Three, because that's the first home game for each team in the series. The bouncebacks are for the other games. We have our first Game Three Wednesday Night when Orlando hosts Indiana. The rest start Thursday. Now, this doesn't mean I'm definitely releasing Orlando as a play to my clients this evening. You have to handicap every game as it comes based on a variety of matchup factors. Maybe I've decided that Orlando's sluggish offense is too shaky to trust. What I'm telling you is that the ZIG ZAG THEORY points to Orlando (and everyone doing it WRONG would get the same indicator anyway since Orlando lost the last game).
STEP FOUR: Bet the previous game's loser in every game until the series ends.
This part nobody screws up.
Clearly anyone following this approach so far is very happy with their results. Some years are better than others. There's no guarantee it's going to work going forward because oddsmakers are aware of the market's tendency to bet bounce backs. They try to defend as best they can. That's one reason this approach has gone from FANTASTIC to just pretty good over time. Oddsmakers have adjusted.
But, as you saw in some of these Game Two's...there's just no way to adjust to extremes. Indiana won by 15 after a loss, Boston won by 7 and covered by double digits after a loss, Philadelphia won by 16 and covered by 23 after a loss.
I personally let this approach be a "guide" to my process rather than using it as a whole process. In recent years it's become very clear that some of the elite teams try to get their first round series over with quickly, while their overmatched opponents just throw in the towel. You don't want to go 1-3 ATS in a sweep.
If you're a casual bettor risking chump change for fun, you can do a lot worse than using THE TONY SALINAS ZIG ZAG THEORY. If you're interested in being a HIGH ROLLER who only bets the best opportunities when they arise, then use it as a guide within a much more comprehensive approach.
You can purchase the exact same games that made ME a HIGH ROLLER right here at this website with your credit card. I only post my BIGGEST bets for clients. If you have any questions, call my office at 1-888-536-8880.
If you're losing on your own so far in the playoffs, you only have yourself to blame. Fundamental approaches are doing well. Informed approaches are doing even better! Stop taking the worst of it with your own picks...start GETTING THE BEST OF IT with TONY SALINAS!
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