Late Season NBA Dogs
Late Season NBA Dogs
By Wayne Allyn Root:
I'm known as "The King of Upsets" because I know when to step out big on an underdog play. Here are the key indicators I'm looking for in the latter stages of an NBA season.
First, you want to focus on teams who care about the result. I want an underdog who's trying to WIN the game for me. Saturday Night provided a few examples of this when teams in the playoff picture were getting points. Boston covered (and won big) as an underdog at Indiana. Orlando covered (and won outright on ESPN) as an underdog at Philadelphia. Dallas just missed covered its spread (losing by five as a four-point underdog) on the road in a big game in Memphis.
Dogs like this will either be there the whole game for you...or will try to rally even if they fall behind. Over the course of 100 samples...you win a lot easily...you rally for some at the end...and you lose a few that get away from you on free throws or some other misfortune. Vegas gamblers try to win 55% of their volume bets and 60% or more of their biggest plays. Motivated dogs strike in those ranges. That's why the Wise Guys in Vegas and offshore bet so many dogs.
Second, this late in the season you want a FRESH underdog who won't run out of gas at any point in the game. It's telling that both Boston and Orlando Saturday Night didn't play on Friday. They had a day to rest up and prepare. Dallas on the other hand had to play overtime vs. Portland. Dallas was trying to win, but didn't quite have the stamina to pull it off. Your best dogs are going to be FRESH and MOTIVATED.
Be sure you're keeping track of everyone's day-to-day schedules. You absolutely HAVE to know who's playing on night two of a back-to-back, who's playing their fourth game in five nights, who's either coming off a huge game (both Oklahoma City and Miami struggled badly the game after playing each other this week). The best dogs strike in a sweet spot in the schedule.
Third, you want to be at something close to full strength in terms of your roster. This is difficult to pull off this year because so many players are banged up. At least make sure your stars are going to be on the floor! The Lakers closed as an underdog in Phoenix because Kobe Bryant sat out with a shin injury. The Lakers weren't a bargain at that price even after oddsmakers made an adjustment. Be sure your arsenal is well stocked if not fully stocked before making a big dog bet. Does that day's lineup have a good chance to cover given the personnel matchups? Don't bet on wishful thinking. Bet when you can truthfully answer YES!
Finally, don't forget to take the favorite into account. During football season I'm always emphasizing to you the importance of taking motivated underdogs against flat favorites. Every night's NBA card features some favorites who really don't have any reason to bring a peak effort. Maybe the favorite is tired because of its recent schedule, or in an obvious letdown spot. Maybe the favorite is locked into a playoff seed and is now thinking ahead. Maybe the favorite is cutting back on the minutes of their starters so everyone's ready to go in the postseason. The ideal dog bet....any dog I release as a big money play...as going to have some important anti-favorite angles in play as well.
If the dog is in a great position, bet for value. If that's true AND the favorite is likely to be flat, then you can step up your units for a max play.
My top basketball dogs and favorites can always be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Right now, any dog I release any day of the week is going to have a lot going for it. Don't forget that baseball is up and running now too. If you have any questions about building the perfect package for your individual needs, call my office at 1-877-766-8946.
Vegas oddsmakers absolutely hate the last two weeks of the NBA regular season because so few teams play to their Power Rating numbers. I'm THE KING OF LAS VEGAS because I kick oddsmakers when they're down. That makes this the perfect time for you to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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