Tough to win in MLB Backing Big Apple
Wayne Root: Tough to win in MLB Backing Big Apple
You longtime readers know I play a lot of attention to what's going on in New York because I grew up there (born as a true S.O.B...son of a butcher in Mt. Vernon MY), and because I made my name as a handicapper there before moving to Las Vegas many years ago.
Once a New Yorker, always a New Yorker!
When it comes to baseball, it can get expensive being a fan of the New York teams. It's very hard to make money on either the Yankees or the Mets as a general rule because Vegas oddsmakers charge a premium for betting the big market teams. These teams HAVE to be terrific just to have a chance to make money. In some years, the lines are so high that there's simply no margin for error. If either team suffers injuries, or slumps...profit is out of the picture.
Let me run the numbers for you from recent seasons. Back in 2006, both the Yankees and Mets had very good years, finishing with identical records of 97-65. Since then, betting the teams every time they took the field would have yielded these results...
Yankees: -11 units
Mets: -11 units
The market adjusted just as the teams regressed a bit. Both the Yankees and Mets dropped double digit units in betting losses the year after those twin 97-64 records.
Yankees: -5 units
Mets: -5 units
Not as bad in 2008, but both teams followed in lock step once again toward money losing seasons for backers. It's frustrating indeed to support your favorite team with your hard earned money only to see six months of rooking interest cost you money. The teams are both down 16 units since the big year.
Yankees: +12 units
Mets: -15 units
A great season for the Yankees, because it's very hard for that team to win enough games to break even let alone show a double digit profit. Yankees fans were beaming and flush. Mets fans had a disastrous 2009, dropping 15 units. The Mets are now down 31 units over three years since that 2006 campaign. The Yankees are still down a bit, but closer to break even.
Yankees: -5 units
Mets: -5 units
Back to normal...with both teams suffering what seems to be kind of a midpoint decline of five units. No wonder Mets fans have been grouchy for so long. The ownership was going bankrupt because of the Madoff scandal, and their fans were losing Las Vegas bets!
Yankees: +9 units
Mets: -1 unit
Last year the Yankees were back in the black with a nice profit season. The Mets got close to break even...which was largely the market realizing they weren't very good and pricing it properly. Still, it was a negative year for Mets fans, making it five straight since the big 2006 season. Even though the Yankees are expensive to take...they can show a profit in their best years because it's hard to price greatness in the baseball markets. If C.C. Sabathia or another hot starter keeps winning, you can't get the price high enough.
The Yankees begin their 2012 season Friday afternoon at home against Tampa Bay. The Mets started Thursday with a home game against Atlanta. My best advice for betting both teams this year is to look for game-to-game value rather than riding them every day hoping for a big season. It's just very tough to make the "avid fan" strategy work in Las Vegas.
Look for starting pitchers who offer value because oddsmakers aren't giving them enough respect.
Look for ballparks that best favor the teams offense.
Be on the lookout for turmoil in the media...because you pretty much want to pass every game when either team is dealing with a soap opera.
Out here in Vegas, I have to be neutral in terms of my fan allegiance. That means I will bet AGAINST the Yankees or Mets when the situation calls for it (or the Knicks, or the Giants, or the Jets). My allegiance is to making money...and my clients...rather than to the teams I grew up with. I strongly suggest you develop that mindset too. I know many Mets fans wish they were betting against their team rather than on them the past five years.
Look for overpriced pitchers (particularly on the Yankees) who can't justify their high Vegas prices.
Look for ballparks that hurt the win likelihood for each team.
If there is a local soap opera that develops for any reason (hey, it's NEW YORK, this is bound to happen!), look to fade either team dealing with drama.
I'll keep an eye on both of these teams throughout the season and report on what I find for you here at this website. I may be THE KING OF LAS VEGAS but part of my heart will always be in New York. And, I have lifelong connections there that have served me VERY well in terms of meaningful information against the betting lines.
I'm very excited that the regular season has finally started. You can purchase my opinions every day right here at the website with your credit card. If you have an questions about which of my services best suits your individual needs, call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946. I have great rates for you in MLB and the NBA.
Baseball lines are the softest in April because oddsmakers are using last year's perceptions when pricing this year's teams. I will be exploiting bad numbers each and every day this weekend. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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