The Distraction of the Dance
The Distraction of the Dance
By the KING of Las Vegas WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
Once we reach mid-February on the calendar, I start looking very seriously for great spots on the schedule to fade big name college basketball teams. Valentine's Day historically triggers the time when everyone, and I mean EVERYONE in college basketball starts to become obsessed with the looming March Madness.
Top national contenders start dreaming about tournament glory, and they lose focus on what they're supposed to be doing right now.
Teams who are locked into seeds lose some intensity because they know few of the current games are going to be as important as the games they play in a few weeks. Sure, they'll get fired up as underdogs against the superpowers. But, they'll be often be flat as a pancake when stepping down in class.
Bubble teams who should get fired up to play their best often get nervous under all the intense pressure that comes with being right on the borderline. The media will tell you bubble teams are about to play their best, when they're actually about to take the floor and fall apart from nerves.
I'm nationally known as THE KING OF UPSETS because I know how to recognize shocker potential in any sport. In college basketball, we've just reached the sweet spot in the schedule. You thought last week had a lot of thrillers with live dogs taking overpriced favorites right down to the wire. YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHING YET!
I expect to have several underdog plays and upset calls in these last few weeks of the regular season, and then in the conference tournaments. I'm not going to talk about specific teams very often here in my web articles because I want to protect the information for my clients. There may be a top five team I'll be fading on MULTIPLE occasions in the next few weeks. I want to win on multiple occasions instead of losing any line value by tipping my hand!
Here are some general guidelines you should follow:
For any top eight team in the national rankings (those expected to be #1 or #2 seeds in the Big Dance), look to fade them for value as big favorites, particularly on the road. Look to go against them with upset calls against any fired up opponent that has the talent to hang with them. You should expect to have a mix of light plays and BIG plays against the powers during this "look-ahead" stage in the season.
For any team ranked from nine to 25...those teams who are safely in the Big Dance even if they many not be the best team in their own conference...do the same thing on a smaller scale. You fade them as road favorites or as big home favorites. But, this kind of team is going to give you a big effort if they're facing a national power. Try to ride the high's and low's properly, because this class is going to be inconsistent.
For any team that the media is calling a bubble team, study pointspreads from the last few weeks to see if the market is overreacting to the bubble hype. This is pretty common. There are always a few teams each year who are suddenly priced like they're powers because ESPN keeps saying they're in a "must win" spot. You want to take those free points and put them in your back pocket. Teams who are on the bubble can't be trusted to cover inflated prices. You'll be surprised how often they play BELOW past standards rather than above them because of the pressure.
Study the minute distribution of everyone in the rankings. Shorthanded teams often hit a real dead spot in mid to late February because the players are all tired from carrying such a big load...AND they know that the most important games are a few weeks away. The gas tanks are on low for these guys. You can make a lot of money fading teams who don't have the energy to go 40 hard minutes. Adjust your bet size in accordance with what you learn here. Don't fade the deep teams as aggressively as you fade the shorter rotations.
Study February results from the past few seasons to get a read on which coaches and which programs have a tendency to fall prey to the issues I've just discussed. There are a lot of "usual suspects" in the rankings right now who seem to ALWAYS be in the rankings. Did they get shocked a couple of times last year, or the year before? What kinds of opponents were shocking them? Did the upsets happen at home or on the road? What were the price ranges on the Vegas board?
I'm the only handicapper with a star on the Vegas "Walk of Fame" because I'm always in synch with the seasonal energy of each betting sport. I own this town for a reason! And, you're about to see one of those reasons in these next few weeks.
You can win right along with me by purchasing my picks every day right here at the website. I also have great rates on seasonal packages that will take you through the tournaments. For more information, call 1-877-766-8946.
The KING OF UPSETS and the KING OF LAS VEGAS is going to be making handicapping headlines on a daily basis. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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