NFL Mistakes from Vegas Oddsmakers
A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM
By the KING of Las Vegas WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
Wayne Root: NFL Mistakes from Vegas Oddsmakers
As promised I'm back with part two of a series regarding mistakes I believe oddsmakers have been making this season. We talked about the colleges last time. Now, we move on the NFL.
It might be better in the NFL to think of these as "mistakes in the line" rather than "oddsmaker mistakes." For example, the whole world wanted to bet the Philadelphia Eagles this season because of all the Preseason hype generated by their offseason acquisitions. Oddsmakers knew this and stacked the line very high. As a result, the slumping Eagles are just 3-6 against the spread.
Is that an oddsmaker mistake or a market mistake? Hey, I heard interviews before the season started with a lot of oddsmakers who thought Philadelphia was going to be great this year. I assure you not a single one of them believed Philadelphia would be 3-6 straight up and ATS heading into this Sunday Night's game against the New York Giants...unless Michael Vick had missed six weeks with an injury or something. Oddsmakers were wrong about the Eagles...but sportsbooks probably made money in Philly games anyway because the general public was even more wrong.
Here's my list...
LACK OF RESPECT FOR ROOKIES
Andy Dalton has led the Cincinnati Bengals to a 6-3 straight up record and a 7-2 ATS mark heading into Sunday's big game in Baltimore. This hot Cincinnati start caught many flat-footed. Cam Newton in Carolina covered some early spreads too...though the line did adjust there and the Panthers are now just 5-4 ATS as they visit Detroit. Even Blaine Gabbert is holding his own in Jacksonville. Handicappers who saw how well these kids were performing...and had the courage of their convictions...scored a few very nice winners.
TOO MUCH RESPECT FOR PROJECTED CONTENDERS
The Eagles aren't the only team that's been disappointing. Nobody in the NFC East...which was supposed to be strong again this year...currently has a winning ATS mark. San Diego was supposedly ready to make a run at the Super Bowl. The Chargers are just 2-7 ATS as they visit the Bears late Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh and New England are just 10-9 ATS combined, meaning there was no money to be made backing those powers. You could pick your spots against them with some intelligent handicapping and cash those tickets safely.
TOO MUCH BELIEF IN CINDERELLA HYPE
Cleveland was supposed to make a move this year with a new head coach...maybe even competing for the AFC North crown. The Browns are 1-6-2 ATS with Jacksonville coming to town. The only cover came against an Indianapolis team that may be losing games on purpose (which is another lesser storyline oddsmakers have been slow to recognize. St. Louis was a popular darkhorse pick to make a move in the NFC West. The Rams are 2-7 ATS as they prepare for Seattle. Tampa Bay was supposed to be a young up-and-comer. They're 3-6 ATS with a tough challenge ahead at Green Bay on Sunday. Again, some of this can be attributed to errors from the public, and even some of the so-called Wise Guys. Oddsmakers aren't immune to blame with these blown lines though.
LACK OF RESPECT FOR PARITY
You'd think that oddsmakers would be able to pin down favorites fairly well once you get past the halfway point in the season. But, all of the following lost last week as favorites: San Diego, Kansas City, Carolina, Atlanta (very small, pick-em in spots), Cleveland, Philadelphia (as a 13-point favorite!), Baltimore, and the NY Jets. The Jets lost outright again as a favorite this past Thursday in a big winner for my service on the Denver Broncos and Tim Tebow. It's just a plain fact that oddsmaker Power Ratings have over-rated too many teams, and under-rated too many others. One of the biggest reasons for my underdog success over the years is that I have a respect for parity in the NFL.
OUT OF SYNCH WITH TOTALS
I don't release many Over/Unders to my clients because the vast majority of Las Vegas bettors prefer to focus on team sides. But, this is obviously an area that caught oddsmakers asleep at the wheel. Scoring exploded in the early weeks...and Overs bettors cleaned up. Totals finally moved up...just as offenses cooled off! This whiplash effect made smart handicappers some good money, and may continue to do so now that lines are only slowly dropping despite the fact many quarterbacks are getting hurt.
Be sure you check out the "buy picks" page here at the website for the latest details on my Sunday offerings. Take care of business early because something special is going in at least one of the early kicks. I've got reduced rates now for the rest of the season that you can take advantage of online or by calling my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946.
Maybe THE KING OF UPSETS is ready with another major shocker. Maybe THE KING OF LAS VEGAS has a favorite who's going to cover a blowout by two touchdowns. It's good to be the king...and you'll join the good times yourself if you sign up today with WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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