LSU-Alabama and More BCS Chaos

A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM
By the KING of Las Vegas WAYNE ALLYN ROOT

My Thoughts on LSU-Alabama

I'm in a tricky position this weekend, because everyone wants to know what THE KING OF LAS VEGAS thinks about the #1 vs. #2 battle of LSU versus Alabama...which will be the biggest betting game of the college football regular season in Nevada and offshore. But, I may be playing that game big for clients and I have to protect the selection.

I will do my best to outline my thinking on Saturday Night's big game, without giving away who my personal pick is.

Obviously, I'm famous for picking upsets in college football, so my first thought in a game like this is to study the underdog. Does LSU have what it takes to win this game outright at a spread of +4.5?

ON DEFENSE: Absolutely, LSU has one of the best defenses in the country. It's rare to get a defense this good AND points from Las Vegas oddsmakers. LSU would quality as the classic "defensive dog," and I've made a lot of money over the years on defensive dogs.

ON OFFENSE: This is a tougher call because LSU is prone to go through very sluggish stretches with this quarterback and attack. They'll look great for 10 minutes, then spend an hour doing nothing. And, that's happened against opposing defenses who aren't nearly as good as Alabama's. There are playmakers here. I certainly can't say that the Tigers DON'T have an offense that can cover this spread or spring an upset. If there is a weakness in this matchup, it's on this side of the ball for LSU.

ON SPECIAL TEAMS: I mentioned the other day in my Top Ten article that LSU is likely to have an edge on special teams, particularly in the punting game. You never know because both teams have returners who can go the distance...and one big return could swing the game. Also, if a special teams unit is likely to get "rattled" in a big regular season game...it's more likely to be the visiting team than the home team. This category certainly doesn't disqualify LSU, and may turn out to provide an edge for them.

So far, so good from the LSU perspective. Possibly very good. On the other hand...

Usually, when I'm picking an underdog, I'm looking to go against a flat or fatigued favorite. That was part of why my big winner on Georgia Tech over Clemson worked out so well last week. Clemson just couldn't keep it going, particularly on defense. They were due for a bad game and got spanked. There's just no way ALABAMA is coming into this game flat or tired...so that might dampen any enthusiasm for the underdog.

It's more the WAYNE ALLYN ROOT upset call style to go against either of these powers when they're likely to be distracted or flat. Maybe that will happen later in the season when they match up against Arkansas or Auburn. Maybe it will happen in the SEC Championship game when the winner faces the SEC East survivor. My classic upset calls haven't really come in #1 vs. #2 games...they've come when #1 loses focus down the road, or when any highly ranked team looks like they're ready to hit a wall.

Let me end with this:

  • If I pick Alabama, it's because I believe its strong defense will shut down LSU's offense in a way that will allow a fired up home team to win by at least a touchdown.

  • If I pick LSU, it's because I believe points will be at a premium in a defensive struggle between two very evenly matched sides.

  • If I pass the game, it's because there were other options that graded out so much better that they deserved big play attention over this one. There's no rule that says you have to bet every big TV game! The advantage of me writing about LSU-Alabama today is that it provides complete and total cover for my very biggest plays!

You can purchase those very biggest plays right here at the website with your credit card. You can also sign up in my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946. I'll try to include LSU-Alabama as a bonus play if it's not a prominent part of my card because I know so many of you are planning to spend the evening living and breathing this dream matchup.

Don't forget to come back tomorrow for the NFL. I'll be talking about the Super Bowl rematch involving the NY Giants and New England Patriots in my Sunday article.

This may be the biggest football weekend of the year in Las Vegas because of LSU-Alabama Saturday Night and some great NFL games on Sunday. That means you should spend it with THE KING OF LAS VEGAS...the number one documented handicapper of all time...WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!

 

More BCS Chaos

Once the drama starts, it usually lasts for weeks! That’s what we saw last Saturday in the BCS picture, as many teams in the BCS picture or within striking distance struggled to match pointspread expectations.

The fun really started TWO weeks ago when Oklahoma was absolutely stunned by Texas Tech in Norman. Even the Red Raiders themselves didn’t think they’d have a chance two in that one. Wisconsin was also undefeated at that time, before losing on a Hail Mary to Michigan State. Once two powers were shown to be vulnerable…the dominoes either started to fall…or began teetering.

Let’s run through some examples. Both #1 and #2 in the BCS poll were off because LSU and Alabama smartly scheduled by weeks before they played each other. Elsewhere near the top:

#5 Clemson was knocked off by Georgia Tech. This was a HUGE play for me, so I wasn’t surprised at all. I wrote an article about BCS Chaos last Monday, then I shut up about it because I needed to protect this Game of the Year caliber release! Clemson was a road favorite, but trailed the whole way and was never a threat to even win the game straight up, let alone cover.

#6 Stanford was very lucky to survive Southern Cal in overtime. They trailed in the final moments of regulation thanks to a pick six thrown by Andrew Luck. They did rally to force the extra period, and finally won on a fumble in the third overtime. The defense had nothing left in the tank. Luck wasn’t up to his usual standards in this high pressure situation.

#7 Oregon, who too many people are forgetting about, had a very poor outing against lowly Washington State. The Ducks should beat a team like that by several touchdowns with their eyes shut. It was still a game early in the second half, and Oregon didn’t get near the Vegas spread. Remember, BCS Chaos doesn’t just cause upsets…it can cause flat performances for distracted favorites no matter how bad the opponent is.

#8 Kansas State faced #9 Oklahoma, and was exposed as a pretender by a super-talented national power. Kansas State fell apart in the second half once the game started to get away from them. I had Oklahoma for a big play on my service…knowing that a great team was going to bounce back strong at an affordable price against a pretender. Two months into a season, and the BCS computers still can’t tell you who the pretenders are!

#10 Arkansas fell behind Vanderbilt early and had to rally late for a very tight win. This could easily have been an upset…and probably would have been if not for a couple of fortunate plays for the Hogs. You just can’t take anybody lightly in the second half of the season…particularly if you’re a name team…and the opponent wants to make a name for themselves!

#11 Michigan State played its worst game of the year in a loss to Nebraska. Isn’t it amazing how large this list is growing? Even teams who you weren’t thinking about much in the BCS race played flat because the kids on the field knew they were ranked…and spent too much time congratulating themselves for it.

#12 Virginia Tech almost lost to Duke! Are you kidding me! Do you know how distracted an offense has to be to only score 14 points on the horrible Duke defense?!

That’s enough to make the point. These teams weren’t as motivated as they should have been…and their opponents were fired up to make statements. Teams 15, 16, and 20 also fell by the way, with Wisconsin, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech respectively all losing outright as favorites.

This week may not be quite as dramatic. And, obviously nobody’s going to be flat in the huge LSU-Alabama game that could easily determine one of the two BCS Championship game entries (though both of those teams could have toughies later against the likes of Arkansas and Auburn).  I still believe handicappers like you and me should be looking for SHOCK THE SYSTEM upset possibilities, or at least live underdog spots where lesser teams like Washington State or Duke play great against a big opposing favorite.

I’m not going to get specific here in my web article. I can tell you I’ll be looking to make a score in LSU-Alabama, and that this is shaping up as one of my biggest weekends ever. The fun will start TONIGHT as I try to build on my 67-33 record over the last 100 Thursday Night picks with something special in college football. We’ll win again Friday with my top play from that evening’s twinbill. Then, Saturday, look out!

You can always purchase my game day releases right here on the website with your credit card. I've got a big weekend of football ahead. Last weekend I swept my Platinum Plays, on Saturday with Ohio State (+7) over Wisconsin 33-29 and Pittsburgh (+3) over New England 25-17 on Sunday. Two dogs, two outright upsets. Join me for my top play of both Saturday and Sunday and let's start a November to remember together. If you have any questions, call my office at 1-877-766-8946.

One of the reasons I’m known as THE KING OF LAS VEGAS is because WAYNE ALLYN ROOT MAKES HEADLINES when BCS Chaos starts to wreak havoc. You saw that last week with big play winners on Georgia Tech (outright upset on a dog) and Oklahoma (monster blowout on a favorite). You’re going to see it again in a matter of hours.

And, THAT means it’s time to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!

 

“A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM” is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and the “King of Las Vegas” WAYNE ALLYN ROOT. For more information on my UNDERDOG BASEBALL CLUB and my PERFECT PLAYS, call 1-877-766-8946.

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