Finding College Underdogs
A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM
By the KING of Las Vegas WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
Finding College Underdogs
I'm known as THE KING OF LAS VEGAS largely because I'm THE KING OF UNDERDOGS. I have more documented outright upset calls than any other man in the industry. That's been true for years and I keep right on adding to my advantage.
Hopefully you were with me last year when I won three straight outright upset calls picking against the number one team in the country!
Will there be big upsets this week, when college football finally gets under way to kick off the 2010 campaign. Let's review the upsets that happened last year at this time:
Florida Atlantic (+13) upset UAB 32-31
East Carolina (+7) beat Tulsa 51-49
Maryland (+6.5) beat Navy 17-14
I'm leaving out any games where somebody was a one or two point favorite. That's not exactly an "upset call"when you take a dog in a game like that! Obviously it was a think opening week for stunning upsets last year. The last two games weren't even played until Sunday...so all day Saturday was basically a case of big favorites winning their games.
There were some surprises. Oklahoma only beat Utah State by 7 as 34-point favorites. Florida struggled much of the day against Miami of Ohio. Texas showed early signs of problems in a lethargic win over Rice. Underdogs had some big covers last year during opening week, but few outright upsets.
And, that's the story I expect again this weekend. Maybe I'll make a dramatic upset call, and maybe I won't. I can tell you that I'm thinking more about underdogs who offer line value this week rather than underdogs with a great chance of pulling off a shocker. Here are the keys I use when making Week One picks:
FADE ARROGANT FAVORITES
Those three teams I just mentioned are all great examples of teams who spent the summer reading press clippings instead of getting ready to play. Oklahoma, Florida, and Texas were perennial powers who thought they could just show up and win. The Sooners eventually got their act in gear. Florida won some games but was a disappointment. Texas was a disaster! I'll be looking to fade overhyped favorites this week.
FIND TALENTED DOGS
Some underdogs shouldn't be touched with a 10-foot pole. If you're going to invest in an underdog...you want quality at quarterback...a defense that won't be intimidated...and hopefully at least one gamebreaker player who's going to find the end zone for you. Don't take a dog just because you're getting 28 points or 35 points, and that "seems like too much."If you can't point to specific ways your dog matches up well with the opposing favorite, stay away.
FIND MOTIVATED DOGS
You have to assume that every dog is motivated in the first game of the season. This is a bigger edge later in the season when you can tell that a dog has been pointing towards a certain game for a few weeks. But, you'll occasionally find first week dogs that have a chip on their shoulder because of revenge from a prior season...frustration with the local media...or lack of respect from the national media in terms of polls or conference predictions. This extra kicker of motivation may be just what it takes to win your bet in the second half.
DON'T LIMIT YOURSELF TO DOGS
If you've purchased my selections here at the website, you've noticed that I bet my share of favorites too. I generally focus on cheap favorites who are underpriced. It's important not to get tunnel vision as a bettor. Take advantage of value wherever you find it. Maybe there really aren't a lot of great underdog opportunities in a given week. Bet the ones at sportsbooks that make the most sense, then add to your slate with sharp favorite choices.
My NFL PRESEASON GAME OF THE YEAR last week was a small favorite. Tampa Bay covered against Miami for us. Many of my recent PINNACLE successes in baseball were favorites. Remember when I had Milwaukee over the New York Mets on back-to-back days up in the Big Apple?
I really like how this week's college football schedule is lined up. We'll be building some bankroll Thursday and Friday, then really stepping out on a busy Saturday. You can sign up for my 5-Day College Kickoff Special or Upset Club daily football service here at the website with your credit card. I've got a few great options for you. If you want to test the waters, go day-by-day for awhile to get a sense of how it all works. If you have any questions, call my handicapping office at 1-877-766-8946.
I'll get into more college football specifics later in the week. I hope you'll take care of business NOW though so the week doesn't get away from you. The season is here! That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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