Wayne Root: Betting College Basketball - Successfully
BETTING COLLEGE BASKETBALL...SUCCESSFULLY
By WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
There are 345 teams that play some sort of College basketball that we can usually bet. My question to you is; would you rather bet on Duke, Kansas or Syracuse laying a huge number because of their talent AND an added inflated few points because they're an obviously top 10 team year in and year out or a team that graduated their starters and are looking to rebuild? I look FIRST to bet against these bottom tiered teams; or in other words, I want to begin my handicapping for the day by looking to go against the newly rebuilt teams. And if there are none then I look to see how the Top 25 teams are verses the over-inflated pointspread produced by the oddsmakers.
The rebuilding teams are a great place to start. Teams that have usually played well year in and year out but are rebuilding this year. Some of these teams pointspreads will be inflated because the oddsmakers know they can"get away with it". But even with the proper power ratings on these squads, these teams in reality are formerly good team fielding bad players or untested players this season.
Let's look at some teams that are in the BOTTOM of the 345 list: teams that I rank 200 to 345. A short"go-against" list. note: this list is constantly being updated as teams may discover a super freshman or a 7th man from last years team.
The first team coming in (or bottom team in this case) to look to go against is San Diego at # 319.
Be careful of the"directional schools" such as Central Michigan coming in at 301. These young teams may be a"go-against" on the road no matter how many points they will receive. Bowling Green is also on our list at 291. They join Toledo which usually has more talent than they have this season. Pepperdine has always been a"sleeper" on the West Coast but this season they may stay asleep as they are young and come in at 274.
Let's now look at some"bigger" named schools which may be a surprise to most. Auburn (263), Wyoming(262), Nevada (254), Oregon St (227), Wake Forest (221), Houston (214), Bradley (210), New Mexico St (209), Fresno St (206) and DePaul (200) all are somewhat of this years"bottom-feeders".
And there are an abundant amount of teams that catch my attention ranked from 100 to 199. Imagine a very good (but unknown) Cleveland St playing DePaul and Depaul is laying 6.5 ON THE ROAD. All based on passed history. I will be the first in line at the Sportsbook. (more reasons the Sportsbooks hate College basketball). And do you realize that Quinnipiac has higher power ratings than Michigan, or Florida St and a host of others? Or who would you take on a neutral court in a"pick em" game; San Diego St vs Kentucky? If you choose Kentucky the power ratings will show you picked wrong but they still have to play the game. By they way, the oddsmakers in that scenario would make Kentucky a 7.5 point favorite. Again, I'd be first in line at the Sportsbook....betting SD ST!
But sit back and let me do all the dirty work. I love the homework assignment. Let me find that jewel or golden nugget. I love searching, finding and then POUNDING a game especially when I know the oddsmakers are trying to"trick" the public. Twice a week, my power ratings are reworked. My sense of what the oddsmaker is trying to do with his numbers becomes keen. My sixth sense has an air to it. I am in the zone for the next 3 months betting, winning, collecting and then just when the oddsmakers thought it was safe to go into the water, Wayne Allyn Root makes his adjustments and the process is started all over again. Week in and week out. That's why I love College Basketball and conversely, that's why the Sportsbooks limit most bets on College Hoops.
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