Wayne Root: Battle Tested NFL Dogs
A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM
By the KING of Las Vegas WAYNE ALLYN ROOT
'LIVE DOGS" WITH TOUGH SCHEDULES ARE BETTER THAN YOU THINK!
It's always important to remember that the NFL is a league of relative parity. There are good teams and bad teams of course. But, everyone's more tightly bunched together than it can seem.
In fact, the won-lost records you see in your morning newspaper are often 'illusions" created by varying strengths of schedule. If you have two teams who are relatively even...but one played mostly good teams, while the other played mostly bad teams...the standings will show records of 6-5 or 7-4 for the team with the easier slate, but 4-7 or 5-6 for the team with the tougher slate.
Who's going to be favored in Las Vegas when those two teams play each other? The team with the better record. Who should be favored? Neither. I just said they were relatively even!
This is one of my hidden secrets for finding great underdog bets in all sports. False favorites are often just average teams who have played easy schedules. Live dogs are often average teams who have played tough schedules. And, sometimes...you even get underdogs who are good teams that played tough schedules. That's when it's time for a SHOCK THE SYSTEM upset call...because you've got a quality team that shouldn't even be an underdog in the first place.
I decided to bring this up today because there are fully EIGHT underdogs on the NFL card this weekend who have played a tougher schedule than their opponents according to various schedule rating systems I've seen. There are a few sites online that rank the schedules. Most are in general agreement because it's hard to make many mistakes in a 32-team sample. Now, I'm NOT going to list those eight teams for you here in my web article. I'm not going to tip my hand in any way because at least one of these dogs may end up being a PERFECT PLAY or GAME OF THE YEAR caliber release for me. I just wanted you to be aware of the possibilities here, and give you time to do your own research if you're so inclined.
Oh, if you're reading this on Saturday, you have some time to do this kind of research for college football this week as well. And, you should DEFINITELY be considering this in the bowls later in the month. There are typically at least a half a dozen bowl dogs who played tough schedules in tough conferences, and prove they've been underrated with dominating postseason performances.
You'll also find some edges in college basketball too, though it's probably better to wait until everyone's played a few more games. Strength of schedule ratings aren't always accurate in small sample sizes.
In the NFL, with everyone playing their 12th game this Sunday and Monday, you can trust the schedule ratings you're seeing online. See if you can find some battle tested dogs who are ready to step up and make headlines this weekend. Then, use the strategy down the stretch on a week-by-week basis.
Will it work in the NFL playoffs? One of the best indicators for upsets you can have in the playoffs involves strength of schedule analysis! In fact, it's so strong in the playoffs that I won't be talking about it here in my articles! When there are just a few games on the card, you really have to protect your clients by not giving too much away in print. I've outlined the strategy for you today. That's probably all I'll say about it.
I do have a lot to say about this weekend though. CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY may already be under way as you read this. Be sure you act quickly to get the best plays on the board in the major college action. Saturday is also a dream day in college basketball, and I'm off to a great start already in that sport.
Sunday brings a very exciting card highlighted by:
Pittsburgh at Baltimore in the Sunday Night game on NBC
Dallas at Indianapolis
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Oakland at San Diego
San Francisco at Green Bay
Washington at the NY Giants
Jacksonvillle at Tennessee
Yes, at least one of those qualifies for today's theme...and it's very likely that at least one of those will be a HUGE play for clients. Of course, we're all looking forward to the NY Jets/New England game on Monday Night. I may have my biggest MNF release all season going in that game, capping off a huge money-making weekend.
You can sign up for service online. Game day releases are always available a few hours before kickoff. Club packages for the rest of the season can also be purchased with your credit card. If you prefer to talk to a live person, you can call my office at 1-877-766-8946, that's 1-800-ROOT-WINS .
Battle tested teams...from a battle tested handicapper. It's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
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