Keys to Finding Preseason Shockers - Best & Worst Preseason Coaches
'A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM'
From the 'King of Las Vegas'WAYNE ROOT!
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, LOOK FOR FLAT FAVORITES!
The NFL Preseason gets underway this weekend, with the Dallas Cowboys facing the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday Night in Canton, Ohio.
I've already talked some in recent weeks about general handicapping strategies. This weekend, I want to talk about a few keys for finding SHOCK THE SYSTEM possibilities that will cover the spread by 2-3 touchdowns.
Many traditional handicappers will focus on surprise teams who are poised to play well. They look for backup quarterbacks who want to win a job. They look for young head coaches who want to send a message. I talked about these kinds of things several days ago.
What sets me apart is that I'm also very focused on going against flat favorites. It takes two to tango. A fired up underdog isn't going to win big unless they catch a favorite flat footed. You want to look for those flat footed favorites and bet against them BIG!
Here are the keys to finding the best 'go against'options in my view:
*Go against head coaches who have established that they don't care about winning, particularly in the first two weeks of the Preseason. These teams are blowout fodder if they run into somebody who wants to put on a show.
*Go against teams who have established quarterback rotations already set for the regular season. If NOBODY throwing passes has a job to win, you're not going to get motivated play from the offense.
*Go against road teams who had awkward preparation because of travel, or who are playing outside their climate. The weather can get really hot in parts of the country in August. Any team training outside of those very hot areas will be in trouble when they have to play on the road in heat. They're not going to worry about winning.
*Go against veteran head coaches the week before their traditional dress rehearsal game. This has been great for me in the past. Veteran head coaches gear everything to the 2-3 quarters when they're going to go at it as hard as possible. The four quarters BEFORE that just don't matter to them. You'll score some very decisive victories by going against these flat teams, particularly if they're cheap home favorites.
I've mentioned to you before that I'm not going to be very specific about individual teams here in my web articles. I'll talk strategies. If somebody's making big news like Albert Haynesworth was recently I'll talk about SHOCK THE SYSTEM potential there. To find out which particular teams I'm focusing on this month, you'll have to sign up for my service!
Call 1-877-766-8946 to join the fun. Your first football winner will go Sunday Night in the Hall of Fame game. The cost is just $69 for the full Preseason. Be sure to ask about full regular season rates for my FOOTBALL UPSET CLUB and PERFECT PLAY packages. I hope you'll check on baseball too. My NO-LIMIT games are on a 46-26 run.
Don't forget that game day releases can always be purchased here at the website with your credit card as well.
I earned a star on the Vegas 'Walk of Fame'because I know how to win big in every sport...and in every month. The money you make in August is VITAL to building a big bankroll because each dollar will multiply itself over several times between now and the Super Bowl.
The sooner you start building your profit pyramid, the bigger it's going to be!
Take it from the man who wrote the book on sports betting...and the book on how to be a millionaire...WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!
'A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM'is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and the 'King of Las Vegas'WAYNE ALLYN ROOT. For more information on the MONEYLINE BASEBALL CLUB and FOOTBALL UPSET CLUB, call 1-877-766-8946.
With Two-Time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER
RECORDS OF THE BEST AND WORST NFL PRESEASON HEAD COACHES
There may be no other situation in all of sports where a coaching preference plays THIS big a role in determining pointspread winners and losers.
*Coaches who emphasize results in the NFL Preseason (there are fewer around now than there used to be), will do a great job of beating the Las Vegas spread. Oddsmakers just can't get the lines in the right places because the numbers are so 'close to the vest' in August.
*Coaches who don't care about results in the NFL Preseason aren't going to cover spreads for you unless you get lucky. Maybe a rookie returns a punt for a TD because he's battling for a job. Maybe the fourth string quarterback connects on a bomb with two minutes to go. The head coach could care less. He's looking at execution now, results later.
Here's a list of current NFL head coaches who have shown extremes in one direction or another in the Preseason during their careers.
BEST PRESEASON COACHES ATS
Mike Shanahan, Washington: 37-29-2 ATS
Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville: 18-10-1 ATS
Mike Smith, Atlanta: 6-2 ATS
Rex Ryan, NY Jets: 3-1 ATS
Steve Spagnulo, St. Louis: 3-1 ATS
Most veteran coaches pick their spots for one good Preseason push rather than worrying about all four games. That's why there's so few good longterm records on the list right now. In the past, more guys had a tendency to drive for results. You'll also see that younger coaches often emphasize results early in their careers to build team confidence. Once that confidence level is reached, there's no need to keep doing that.
I'll have my eye on these five coaches this month. But, I'll be working my back channels very hard to see who's most likely to try hard in a given week. Even the guys who deserve our respect aren't likely to go 4-0 ATS this month. We want to be on them when they're going for peak performance four three or four quarters.
WORST PRESEASON COACHES ATS
Chan Gailey, Buffalo: 0-9 ATS
Todd Haley, Kansas City: 0-4 ATS
Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona: 3-9 ATS
Jim Caldwell, Indianapolis: 1-3 ATS
Mike Singletary, San Francisco: 1-3 ATS
Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay: 1-3 ATS
I was surprised to see so many new coaches struggle last year. Usually those are the guys breathing fire from the first day of the first practice. Jim Caldwell is in the Tony Dungy mold, so that was less of a surprise. The Colts just don't care about results as long as they can see that Peyton Manning is coming along at his normal pace. I do expect to go against a few guys on this list at least once or twice in August. I'm going to pick my spots though.
I have to admit there's not as much to work with as there used to be. You know I follow NFL coaching very closely, and that I try to handicap from a coach's perspective. Here's my take on what's happened:
*Oddsmakers have done a better job of pricing Preseason games.
*So few coaches really care about results now that many games feature TWO teams who don't care about the result! That makes the game a true coin flip, against a Vegas line that's probably going to be near pick-em.
My job as a handicapper is to find the handful of spots each week where there's a true edge to exploit. And, then to allot proper money management based on the size of that edge.
I can tell you that I WILL have a play Sunday Night in the Dallas/Cincinnati game on NBC. That's the annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio that kicks off every Preseason. I can also tell you that I've isolated MAJOR RELEASES deserving of very serious play in each of the first two weeks of exhibition action.
You can sign up for my full Preseason slate (Sunday Night all the way through the month of August) for just $59. Call 1-877-540-8787 to get on board. Be sure to ask about baseball when you call. I've been on a great run in the bases this year. More of you should trust a football coach to pick your baseball. The winning fundamentals are the same in all sports!
Game day releases, including every single one of my Preseason plays this month, can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card.
The summer has moved along quickly thanks to my hot baseball. Now, FOOTBALL IS BACK! If you want to make the most of the 2010 season, make sure you put A COACH IN YOUR CORNER!
'COACH'S CORNER' is an ongoing series presented by VegasSportsMasters.com and two-time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER. For more information on Coach's BASEBALL SERVICE, call 1-877-540-8787.
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