What You Learn In Vegas - Can You Find The Champ?
"A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM"
From the "King of Las Vegas" WAYNE ROOT!
WHAT YOU LEARN FROM WATCHING THE BIG DANCE IN LAS VEGAS
I think one of the biggest reasons I became the KING OF LAS VEGAS is that I spent so much time in local sportsbooks watching people make mistakes. Successful gamblers tend to go through this sequence:
- Making the same mistakes as everyone else.
- Learning from those mistakes.
- Betting properly with as few mistakes as possible.
- Learning how to EXPLOIT the mistakes others are making.
That last one is the big one. You can't win if you make mistakes. You lose less once you stop making mistakes. You start to win when you realize what works. You become successful enough to earn a living as a sports bettor when you've figured out how to MAXIMIZE the value that comes from the mistakes other bettors make.
That's at the heart of my SHOCK THE SYSTEM approach to picking upsets and pointspread blowouts. The "system" is largely made up of false impressions from mistaken bettors. Many years ago I had what I called a "Don't Make Sense" label for big plays. They flew in the face of "common wisdom," but that common wisdom was wrong! It wasn't wisdom at all...it was the collection of common bettors making mistakes. True wisdom isn't common!
I was reminded of this again this month as I was watching MARCH MADNESS unfold in Vegas sportsbooks. Business really picked up again after for the big event. The economy is slowly turning around (it would have turned around faster if my Libertarian campaign for Vice President would have won!). Sportsbooks, particularly the newer ones, were crowded with basketball fans making big bets. And big mistakes!
Among the mistakes you should try to avoid:
- Don't bet a game just because it's on TV. This is the downfall of most newcomers. They're chasing the thrill of the action, not the thrill of actually winning money! You don't get rich from a rush. You get a rush from becoming rich. Newcomers want to have something to root for, so they bet games where there's no edge. In fact, they bet games where there's actually a big edge for the books because lines are stacked against the public in TV games. You can't win going 50/50 against an 11/10 line. You go broke going 45/55 against an 11/10 line. Cut down on your action!
- Falling in love with favorites. This seems to be true across the globe in all sports. It's human nature to see a quality team at its very best a few times, then assume they're always going to play at that level. Market prices move to reflect perfection rather than a typical game. Smart bettors like me step in on the underdog knowing that perfection isn't common. When I find motivational edges for a fired up underdog, or a flat favorite (discussed recently here on these pages), I fire some at the moneyline for the bigger payoff. Dumb bettors take the favorite on the moneyline figuring there's no way they'll lose! Big mistake!
- Losing sight of money management. This is a big problem for novice bettors. I see this a lot during the first week of the NCAA tournament...where tourists come in and lose their bankroll very quickly. Some guys are tapped out during the night games on the first day! It didn't occur to them that they might lose. It didn't occur to them that they should ration their bankroll so it can survive any surprising downturns.
A guy who goes 4-4 should break even, losing a little juice. But, a guy who starts 0-4 before rallying to go 4-0 can bust out if he spreads all of his bankroll among the first four games. His opinions were 50/50, but he busted out anyway because of poor money management. Be smart with your money.
I wanted to remind you of these fundamentals because you'll be tempted to overindulge Friday during the second night of the Sweet 16, and this weekend for the Elite Eight. You'll want to bet every game because it's on TV. You'll run the risk of being favorite heavy because you'll be thinking of everyone's best game so far in the Dance...without adjusting for the fact that teams can't play their best game every time out. You'll talk yourself into betting bigger than normal per game because the schedule isn't as busy as last weekend. Wouldn't that be terrible to erase your current winnings because you made these common mistakes at the worst possible time?!
Let WAYNE ALLYN ROOT guide you through the weekend. I know which games to attack, and which games to pass. I know the difference between a PERFECT PLAY and a value play. I wrote a book called "Millionaire Republican" because I know how to manage my money!
Call 1-877-ROOT-WINS right now to sign up for the rest of my postseason package. You'll get the finals of the NIT and the other events coming up...in addition to everything in the Big Dance through the championships. Game day releases can be purchased here at the website with your credit card as well.
WAYNE ALLYN ROOT knows how to SHOCK THE SYTEM. And, he knows how to MAXIMIZE HIS MONEY WHILE DOING IT!
With Two-Time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER
THE 2010 COLLEGE CHAMPION IS PLAYING THIS WEEKEND!
I know you're going to be watching all the basketball this weekend. As you sit and enjoy the CBS telecasts, I want you to think very seriously about something.
YOU'RE WATCHING THE EVENTUAL CHAMPION!
It may not turn out to be somebody everyone expects. Or, it could turn out that the surprises are over and everything will play to form from this point forward. What we know for sure though is that the eventual champion will come from the pool of remaining teams...and that the eventual champion will be giving you very strong evidence this weekend that they have what it takes.
If you're planning on winning in next Saturday's Final Four, and on Championship night a week from Monday, what you learn in this weekend's Elite Eight will help you make the right decisions. And, THAT means...don't just sit in front of the TV rooting for your bets. Study the games with an eye toward predicting what will happen when today's winners move on.
It's a small group of teams that have a shot to go the distance. YOU'RE WATCHING THEM NOW! Take advantage.
- Which teams are playing with confidence and swagger? Can you name a recent NCAA champion that didn't play with swagger? Can you name ANY champion ever who didn't carry themselves with extreme confidence? If you see fear in the eyes of anybody this week, they're not likely to be a factor next week if they happen to advance.
- Which teams are playing aggressively? Aggression makes its own rewards. I remember how Eric Dickerson used to fly past people when I was coaching at SMU. He didn't passively wait around and hope for the best. He challenged people and dared them to chase him down. Craig James did the same thing (but at a slightly slower speed!). I've been struck in recent years how many championship caliber teams really attack the basket on offense, and defend it with authority on defense. Champions don't pass the ball around for 30 seconds and hope a shot goes in. They don't stand still on defense with their arms in the air either. Swagger without aggression is just posturing. You want swagger AND aggression.
- Which teams have a variety of weapons? I had Eric Dickerson AND Craig James, and a few others guys you don't remember who could make a big throw or a big catch when needed. It's easy for opponents to defend one guy. It's much more difficult to defend multiple weapons. Ideally, you see a team with multiple weapons who share the ball well. Doesn't that describe North Carolina from last year? Doesn't that describe Florida during their back-to-back championships? Who on the floor Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of this week most reminds you of those teams? You'll pick winners in the Final Four and Championship game if you can make the right reads this weekend.
As a coach, one of my jobs is to make sure you're paying attention. I need to keep you focused. I know I've taught you a lot already about handicapping in recent weeks. And, I've been making money for you if you're one of my clients. That 12-3-1 start to the Dance was the best in the nation at that level of action. Don't drift off now. Don't assume the work is over. FOCUS on the games this weekend so you can keep winning.
If you'd like some help...or you just want to get on the bandwagon after that 80% start, you can sign up for service by calling 1-877-540-8787. Game day selections and packages can also be purchased here at the website with your credit card. My postseason package includes the rest of the NIT and the other events, and select NBA selections as well. Be sure to ask about baseball when you call. I've proved I can beat the line in ALL sports, not just football!
Another thing to remember as you watch the games tonight and all weekend ...CHAMPIONS ALWAYS HAVE A COACH IN THEIR CORNER!
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