LACK OF SUPER BOWL EXPERIENCE TOGETHER WITH REMAINING HEAD COACH/QB COMBO'S
With Two-Time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER!
LACK OF SUPER BOWL EXPERIENCE TOGETHER WITH REMAINING HEAD COACH/QB COMBO'S
I always pay a lot of attention to the postseason experience of head coaches and quarterbacks when I'm handicapping the second round of the NFL playoffs and beyond.
I've always believed that you have to learn how to get to a Super Bowl...then you have to learn how to win a Super Bowl. Of the eight teams remaining in the brackets, we only have ONE combination of a coach and a quarterback who have gone the distance in their current roles. And that's the Arizona Cardinals who were a longshot to get their last year, and are still considered a longshot this year.
Let me run through them in schedule order:
- ARIZONA did make it last year, and almost stunned Pittsburgh in the big game. You certainly have to respect this coaching/QB combo based on what happened last year, and their career pedigree in big games. Still, these guys will be worn out from playing that wild 51-45 thriller that ended last weekend. Are they really any kind of frontrunner to go the distance this year given the challenges ahead?
- NEW ORLEANS hasn't ever been to the Super Bowl. They got close three years ago but lost at Chicago on very poor field conditions that took away their preferred method of attack. This is certainly a coaching/QB combo you can see getting there and winning. They haven't done it yet...and that's a big deal when trying to handicap these last few rounds.
- BALTIMORE has a second year head coach and a second year quarterback. They did game it to the AFC championship game last year...which at least suggests they're capable of continuing their role this year. The Ravens may be building a dynasty. They're not there yet.
- INDIANAPOLIS has a great quarterback, and a first year coach who does have good experience as an assistant. You'd naturally rank Dungy/Manning higher than Caldwell/Manning in terms of championship pedigree at this point. Maybe what happens this year and through the rest of Manning's career will change our minds.
- DALLAS has an interesting coaching/QB combo that may just now be figuring out how to get the job done. Wade Phillips has always been a great defensive coach. Tony Romo has always been one of those guys with explosive potential who was prone to make mistakes at the worst possible time. Maybe we just haven't reached "worst possible time" yet this month. Or, maybe this is a combo ready to take the next step forward. Fascinating team right now.
- MINNESOTA has a proven champion in Brett Favre, and a head coach who many don't trust in big games. Can Favre carry the team to a championship anyway? Are things about to implode in the playoffs just like they did in the final month of the regular season? We truly have some great QB's still in the mix. They call can't win!
- NY JETS are truly the wildcard now because they have a first year head coach, and a first year quarterback. That's usually the kiss of death in big games. It wasn't last week at Cincinnati. And, the swagger of this defense sure suggests that a surprise is at least possible. NFL history has not been kind to this kind of combo once you get into the Divisional Round and beyond. A championship run is still a longshot in my view. The Jets sure are a fun longshot to watch though.
- SAN DIEGO has some playoff experience with Philip Rivers and Norv Turner...but they haven't been to a Super Bowl. In past years, that would suggest that the learning curve is about where it needs to be. The Chargers have gotten reasonably close...learned from their mistakes...and are now ready to take that final step toward greatness. Personally, I don't like teams that are this pass-heavy in the playoffs. I'm not ready to call San Diego a favorite. I do think the coaching/QB combo is in good position to maximize their opportunity.
Amazing, there's ONLY ONE EXAMPLE from that list where the current head coach led his current quarterback to a Super Bowl in those roles. That was the Arizona game last year.
If I had to rank the coaching/QB combos from top to bottom:
BEST: arguably nobody really qualifies here in terms of what you'd think BEST would mean. We don't have a Belichick/Brady or Dungy/Manning type combination...certainly nothing like a Walsh/Montana combination either.
BEST OF THE LOT: Indy and San Diego
DANGEROUS: New Orleans and Dallas
QUESTION MARKS: Arizona, Minnesota and Baltimore
LONGSHOT: NY Jets
I'm looking forward to handicapping the games this weekend. What I've discussed today will influence my thinking in every game, but won't determine my final selection by itself. Home field advantage matters. Gameplans and matchups matter. Fatigue matters. The ability to adjust matters. You map out how the game is going to play out, then you compare that to the Vegas line.
That's how I won my big 20-star release last week on the NY Jets (+3) over Cincinnati 24-14. That's why my clients won so easily later that day with Dallas (-4) over Philadelphia 34-14. It's easy to see big covers when you've been on the sideline...been in the locker rooms...and been in battle with a team trying just as hard to beat you as you are them. Oddsmakers don't know what that's like. A fraction of Vegas bettors know what that's like. As much as I respect my handicapping cohorts, none have my kind of frontline experience in big football games.
That's why I hope you'll sign up for this weekend's action or the rest of my playoff picks through the Super Bowl by calling 1-877-540-8787. You can also purchase these selections here at the website with your credit card.
Don't forget to check out my basketball. I've applied the same fundamentals I use in football to basketball analysis. I also learned a lot about the ins and outs of big time basketball from Dave Bliss when I was at SMU. Coaches are fans of all sports. Coaches know what wins in all sports! Give my THREE-POINT BASKETBALL CLUB a try and you'll see what I mean.
Whether you're talking about legally betting playoff football, or taking advantage of Vegas lines in conference action in college hoops...you're going to win a lot more money if you have A COACH IN YOUR CORNER!
"A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM"
From the "King of Las Vegas" WAYNE ROOT!
I TOLD YOU THERE WOULD BE NFL PLAYOFF SHOCKERS!
Congrats to all of you who were with me for my WILDCARD GAME OF THE YEAR last Sunday on Arizona (+2) over Green Bay 51-45. That capped off a Sunday board sweep as Baltimore (+3½) beat New England 33-14. I told you it was going to be a weekend of SHOCKING results, and it was!
- The underdog NY Jets led comfortably all day in a 24-14 victory at Cincinnati. That was an outright upset, and a cover of almost two touchdowns for a team many thought didn't even deserve to be in the playoffs.
- Dallas absolutely crushed Philadelphia in the only shocking result to go to a favorite. The Cowboys led 27-7 at the half, and made it clear that they deserve to be considered Super Bowl material. Dallas beat the Vegas spread by 16 points...and beat the opening line by almost 20!
- Baltimore jumped to a huge lead on New England right out of the gate, even though they were underdogs against a divisional champ. The result was never in doubt after that 24-0 first quarter. It was a cover of more than three-touchdowns for the Ravens.
- Arizona was up 17-0 after a quarter. They couldn't hold on the way Dallas and Baltimore did. But, they did win the game outright as an underdog for my clients and I. If you watched the game, you know Arizona should have been the favorite rather than a home underdog.
It was a horrible week for oddsmakers, and for bettors who can't resist cheap favorites. It was a GREAT week for handicappers who understand that SHOCK THE SYSTEM results are par for the course in the NFL playoffs. Nobody should have been surprised at the magnitude of the upsets and blowouts. This is the very nature of big time football. If you're going to be a winning handicapper, you have to understand the nature of each sport.
What about this weekend? Will the bye teams dominate because they've had an extra week to get ready? Maybe one or two will. Maybe NONE of them will!
- Minnesota and New Orleans in the NFC have both struggled in recent weeks. Minnesota barely looked like a playoff team in losses to Arizona, Carolina, and Chicago. New Orleans lost at home to both Dallas and New Orleans after jumping out to a 13-0 start. It's far from a sure thing that both will win their games, let alone win comfortably.
- Indianapolis and San Diego were more impressive with their starters in late season action. But, the Colts could be rusty after taking about two and a half weeks off. Nobody can afford to be rusty when facing a great defense like Baltimore. San Diego has been very one-dimensional this year...with Philip Rivers making up for weaknesses in the running game and on defense. It's easy to upset a team like that if you can neutralize their one dimension.
Folks, I firmly believe the SHOCK THE SYSTEM results are going to continue this weekend. I won't tell you which underdogs or which favorites I'm looking at. Heck, one "shocker" might be a total play. Remember that oddsmakers missed the Green Bay/Arizona game by about 50 points! I can tell you that the stage has been set for one of my biggest weekends ever. The fun has just begun!
We will see more covers by one touchdown...two touchdowns...maybe even three touchdowns. Not points...TOUCHDOWNS! That's how soft the Vegas lines are. That's how dramatic the edges are when you know how to handicap playoff football. We have explosive offenses on the field. We have high impact defenses on the field. We have coaching mismatches in a couple of spots. We have home fields famous for providing a "big advantage" hosting teams known to underachieve in big games. Oddsmakers can only post their guesses. I KNOW WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, just like I did last week with my WILDCARD GAME OF THE YEAR, and just like I did with all of my major releases in the bowls!
Call 1-877-ROOT-WINS right now to sign up for my service. I've got a great rate for the rest of the NFL playoffs through the Super Bowl (still seven games to go heading into the weekend!). Be sure to check on basketball too. My BASKETBALL PERFECT PLAY & SLAM DUNK CLUB are hitting the hardwoods seven days a week for maximum profit. As I mentioned last time, many of you started playing college hoops this week...and I want you to win all the money that should be coming your way!
Game day selections and packages can also be purchased here at the website with your credit card.
THE KING OF LAS VEGAS told you that the college football bowl slate would be full of SHOCKERS. Underdogs won more than half the bowl games this year! The man with his own star on the LAS VEGAS WALK OF FAME warned you about last week's WILD results ahead of time. Don't wait until Sunday night to say to yourself, "Well, that WAYNE ALLYN ROOT was right again." Call NOW so bet my SHOCK THE SYSTEM games before they happen!
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