Best and Worst College Spread Sides
College Football’s “Other” Key Saturday Showdowns
Plus There’s Important Spread Stats Too…
NFL Week 6 News and Notes
Okay, so as we (usually) inform you throughout a football season, the Betting Favorites and the Underdogs normally are close to a 50-50 split. In fact, off the top of our head and dating back the past 8-to-10 years, we can only recall one or two seasons where either the Fav or the Dog won at a 55 percent-or-better rate.
As you see below, though six weeks of this NCAA Football Season, the Betting Favorites have covered .497 percent of the time, the Underdogs therefore have covered ½03 percent of the time – yes, just another reason you ought to be following our winning selections here at the Jim Hurley Network for all your Football Action… Last weekend included Virginia Tech’s rainy 34-3 blowout win against North Carolina plus Colorado’s hard-fought cover against 5-point fav USC in a 21-17 final score..
It’s high time we got our Jim Sez readers up to snuff with some College Football Key Spread stats – first, here’s the week-by-week pointspread records for the 2016 campaign …
|The Favorites ATS (Against the Spread)|
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One other pointspread piece of business while we’re on the topic:
Here’s the College Football Absolute Best & Worst against the odds thus far in this current campaign:
|The Absolute Best|
|The Absolute Worst|
In yesterday’s jam-packed Jim Sez column, we highlighted two of this weekend’s biggest games – that’s #1 Alabama at #9 Tennessee (hey, it’s the Third Saturday in October, right?) plus #2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin – but there’s loads more monster matchups on this October weekend and so let’s get right to three of ‘em:
On Saturday, it’s…
#10 NEBRASKA (5-0, 2-0 Big 10) at INDIANA (3-2, 1-1 Big 10) – 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Gotta admit that the Nebraska Cornhuskers have kinda snuck up on us and many other folks when it comes to the rankings: Keep in mind that Mike Riley’s club was on the outside looking in at the preseason Associated Press Top 25 but you could make the case that wins here and against lowly Purdue next weekend – along with some outside help, of course – could mean the ‘Huskers might flash into the top five by the time we get to the final weekend in October.
If Nebraska is gonna cover the now-shrinking 3½-point price this weekend than QB Tommy Armstrong, Jr. must get some help from unconventional sources as favorite targets WR Jordan Westerkamp (back) and TE Cethan Carter (elbow) are listed as doubtful.
Spread Notes – Nebraska has started off the season at 3-1-1 ATS and that makes Big Red a solid 8-4-1 spreadwise in its last baker’s dozen overall games. Indiana is fresh off back-to-back covers against Big 10 rivals Michigan State and Indiana but the Hoosiers are just 8-11-1 ATS as pups dating back to the start of 2013.
#12 OLE MISS (3-2, 1-1 SEC) at #22 ARKANSAS (4-2, 0-2 SEC) – 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Sure, those are ranking numbers attached to both of these Southeastern Conference squads here but don’t be fooled:
Ole Miss’ mission to play in this year’s FBS playoffs is out the window no matter what you might be hearing while Arkansas felt it could win the SEC West this year but that dream’s gone up in a puff of smoke – still, this one should be a blast in Fayetteville where the Razorbacks (a 7½-point underdog at press time) need hot-and-cold kid QB Austin Allen (a 64 percent passer) to engineer a balanced attack with RB Rawleigh Williams III (605 yards rushing in six games) a real red-zone key.
Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly (1,596 yards passing with 13 TDs and 4 INTs) figures to come out flinging against a ‘Back defense that’s yielded 38-or-more points in half of its six games so far this season.
Spread Notes – Ole Miss enters this SEC duel on a three-game spread winning streak and the Rebels are a collective 34-18-1 versus the vig the past four-plus seasons. Meanwhile, Arkansas skids into this one on a three-game ATS losing streak but the Hogs still are a composite 13-8 ATS in SEC games since late ’13.
NORTH CAROLINA (4-2, 2-1 ACC) at #16 MIAMI (4-1, 1-1 ACC) – 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
So, how you gonna bounce back here now Miami?
That’s the $64,000 question making the rounds in South Beach these days after the latest loss to Florida State and – like it or not – this is an ACC Coastal Division “elimination game” that will wreck the season for either of these teams and Miami QB Brad Kaaya is in a something-to-prove mode after tossing an ultra-costly INT in the end zone versus the Seminoles. On the flip side, Carolina is hoping to get a wake-up call after that above-mentioned 31-point home loss to V-Tech last Saturday when Hurricane Matthew ruled the roost. The Tar Heels’ star WR Ryan Switzer (49 catches for 589 yards) was a major bust in that rain-fest with a couple of key drops and, hey, when does QB Mitch Trubisky play at a high level for a full four quarters?
Spread Notes – Miami registered four consecutive season-opening pointspread “W’s” till the ‘Canes failed to cover last week’s 1½ point fav price against archrival Florida State in the 20-19 loss while North Carolina’s covered 11 of its last 18 ACC games.
NFL WEEK 6
Lots of NFL Week 6 game previews comin’ your way in the next couple editions of Jim Sez but let’s get you caught up on some News/Notes:
Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys waltz into enemy stadiums this Sunday with each riding spiffy four-game ATS winning streaks:
The Falcons invade 6½ point fav Seattle (the Seahawks are coming off their bye week) and playing on the road’s been no problem for the ATL Birds who own wins/covers at Oakland (Week 2), at New Orleans (Week 3) and at Denver (Week 5) – WR Julio Jones (shin) didn’t practice Wednesday but he should play while Seattle QB Russell Wilson better keep “heads up” when it comes to Atlanta DE Dwight Freeney who owns a sack in each of his last three games…
Meanwhile, the toast-of-the-NFL Cowboys blew that Week 1 tilt at home against the New York Giants but ever since it’s been clear sailing with wins/covers at Washington, versus Chicago, at San Francisco and against Cincinnati. Sure, everyone knows rookies QB Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have been super-special for Jason Garrett’s gang but what about a shout-out to that secondary that batted away more than a few QB Andy Dalton chucks last week? Maybe CB Morris Claiborne was not a “bust” as a long-ago first-round pick, after all!
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