The Jim Sez NFL Week 10 Report

THE JIM SEZ NFL WEEK 10 REPORT

WE TACKLE 3 KEY PREVIEWS INCLUDING LIONS-PACKERS, VIKES-RAIDERS & CARDINALS-SEAHAWKS ...

THE POST-BYE TEAMS IN ACTION: CAN THEY KEEP RINGING UP SPREAD WINS?

Everyone just take a big, long, deep breath ... After all, the majority of NFL teams in action here on this mid-November weekend is just halfway through their schedule and so figuring out all those playoff implications is, well, downright premature. Okay, so we've previously previewed the Sunday games involving the NFL's undefeated squads - so now let's turn our attention to three other big matchups on this Week 10 docket:

DETROIT (1-7) at GREEN BAY (6-2) - 1 p.m. ET, Fox
It's been a long time since we've seen anyone in green, gold and white do the "Lambeau Leap" - hey, the Packers have not been home since a 27-20 non-cover win against San Diego back in Week 6 (a bye and road losses in Denver and Carolina) and now Mike McCarthy's gang enters this tilt as heavy-duty 11.5-point betting favorites.

Remember that NFL teams in their post-bye game are a tasty 13-5 spreadwise (that's a .722 winning rate) and so that's something positive for a Lions crew that has lost games by 25 and 35 points the past month.

Put it this way: If Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers can find all his targets here (okay, so that's a subtle shot, we know) and the Pack get off to a quicker start - they've been outscored 44-14 in the first half these past two weeks - than the crumbling Detroit season will go from bad to worse.

Spread Notes - The GB Packers roared out of the starting gate with a five-game ATS (against the spread) winning streak but they've failed to cover their last three in a row. Note that Green Bay has covered 13 of its last 20 head-to-head showdowns with Detroit.

My handicappers and bloggers will have all the weekend winners and you can get NCAA Football, NFL Week 10 play and all the NBA/NCAA Basketball action when you check with us here at Jim Hurley's Network at the toll-free # of 1-800-323-4453 or right here online. Check is any time after 10 a.m. ET on Saturday/Sunday.


MINNESOTA (6-2) at OAKLAND (4-4) - 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The good news for the Minnesota Vikings is that QB Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play following his head injury suffered in last week's 21-18 overtime home win against St. Louis - the bad news is that this NFC North team goes head-first into the buzz saw that is the "Black Hole".

Hey, the here-and-now Raiders fan knows the silver-and-black are among the real storylines of this 2015 season with QB Derek Carr on pace for a 4,000-plus yard passing year and note he enters this game having already thrown 19 TD passes.

And that's the crux of it here: Minnesota's mighty defense - one that ranks sixth in the league against the pass - will "double" Oakland WR Amari Cooper when necessary and force Carr to throw more dump-off passes to his backs and tight ends with Minnesota's fiery head coach Mike Zimmer believing his "D" will bend but not break. No doubt a Raiders' stop unit that ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing defense will have hands full with RB Adrian Peterson who is averaging 109 yards rushing a game the past three weeks yet the real key is not allowing Peterson those occasional 70- and 75-yard jaunts.

Spread Notes - Minnesota is an electric 7-1 ATS this year and the Vikings zoom into Oakland riding a seven-game spread winning streak. Note that the host Raiders - 5-2-1 versus the vig this year - are 4-8 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2011 season.


On Sunday Night, it's ...
ARIZONA (6-2) at SEATTLE (4-4) - 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

The simple formula? If the Seattle Seahawks have any hopes of catching the Arizona Cardinals for first place in the NFC West, then Pete Carroll's crew must have the season sweep - but that's easier said than done considering the Redbirds are 12-2 SU (straight-up) since the start of last season when veteran QB Carson Palmer suits up and note it's not as if the Seahawks have been any sort of consistent force this year:

They've yet to cover back-to-back games this season and QB Russell Wilson has spent a whole lot of time on his back while trying to hide behind a wobbly O-line.

Two quickie keys for this tilt: The 3-point favorite Seahawks need to make this a physical game and so RB Marshawn Lynch must get - minimum - 25 carries here; And for Arizona to snag the mild upset win, Bruce Arians' team needs WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd to burn an overrated "Legion of Boom" secondary with some major chunk plays - don't be surprised if Palmer looks to throw the home run ball early and catch Seattle flat-footed right out of the starting gate.

Spread Notes - Arizona is 5-3 versus the vig this season and the Cardinals overall are 26-14-1 ATS since the start of the 2013 season. Meanwhile, Seattle is 2-5-1 spreadwise this year and note the Seahawks have covered seven of the last 10 games against 'Zona.


NFL POST-BYE NEWS

Earlier in this Jim Sez column we acknowledged that NFL post-bye teams have covered 13-of-18 games so far this year and, yes, the aforementioned Detroit Lions are one such team playing in their post-bye week here at Green Bay. Let's take a peek at the others ...

The above-mentioned ARIZONA at SEATTLE game pits two teams coming off their bye week but what's interesting here is that Seahawk backers haven't seen the two-time defending NFC champs cover at home since Week 3 (see Seattle 26, Chicago 0) ...

BALTIMORE hosts 5.5-point underdog Jacksonville here in Week 10 action and the Ravens - just 1-6-1 ATS this season - are hoping the post-bye cover magic works for them. John Harbaugh's team has been involved in one-score games each of its first eight games this season and most of them have not turned out real well ...

HOUSTON doesn't get to play its Week 10 game till Monday Night in Cincinnati and it's worth noting that NFL post-bye underdogs are a rock-solid 6-3 against the odds so far and so maybe the Texans can take some comfort with that spread stat ...

KANSAS CITY strung together back-to-back wins/covers prior to last week's bye and now Andy Reid's gang ventures into Denver looking for revenge after that painful 31-24 loss in Week 2 play.

NOTE: Catch up with all our NFL Week 10 recaps plus get our Monday Night Football preview - that's Houston at unbeaten Cincinnati - in the next edition of Jim Sez.

22
Sep

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