Jim Sez for Thursday, Jan. 22 …

THE SUPER BOWL XLIX NOTEBOOK —
WE TAKE A LOOK BACK SPREADWISE
AT THE LAST 10 SUPER BOWL GAMES
PLUS EXAMINE SOME EARLY “KEYS TO VICTORY” …
NBA NEWS & NOTES —
CHECKING OUT THE TROUBLE
BREWING IN CHITOWN

Isn’t it nice that nobody’s talking about the weather when it comes to this year’s Super Bowl?
Can’t help but remember how the NFL was shaking in their high tops last year before Mother Nature granted ‘em a balmy 49-degree evening in East Rutherford, New Jersey for Super Bowl 48 (yes, the New York/New Jersey area was whacked with a major snowstorm the very next day!) but now it’s all clear sailing in Glendale for the upcoming Super Bowl XLIX showdown on Sunday, Feb. 1st between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks … and isn’t that a relief, Mr. Commissioner Roger Goodell?
Okay, so SB 49 is still 10 days away and there’s plenty to sort through in the coming days/hours but let’s whet your appetite with some “early keys to victory”:

  • New England (14-4) — The Patriots went from rushing the ball just 13 times for 14 yards in a 35-31 AFC Divisional Playoff non-cover win against 7-point underdog Baltimore to rushing for 177 yards on 40 totes in the 45-7 triumph over Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game and so the $64,000 question here is just how much do the Pats rely on RB LeGarrette Blount (30 carries for 148 yards against the Colts) here and does New England abandon the run if things get clogged up at the line of scrimmage early on?
  • Seattle (14-4) — The run-first Seahawks rushed the ball 35 times and threw it 30 times in that wild come-from-behind 28-22 overtime win against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game but it’s hard to imagine that Pete Carroll’s club will throw it 46 percent of the time here against CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. So, not only will hard-charging RB Marshawn Lynch (25 carries for 157 yards with one TD versus the Packers) be expected to stay busy but look for RB Robert Turbin (just two carries for 8 yards against Green Bay) to be a larger part of the Seahawks’ game plan come SB 49 … hey, there’s been “no-name” running backs that have shined come Super Bowl games past and so keep Turbin’s name in mind while heading into the action here.

Here’s a look back at the past 10 Super Bowls:

SUPER BOWL HISTORY — THE LAST 10 YEARS

SEASON

WINNER 

SPREAD

LOSER      

SCORE

2013

Seattle

+ 2

Denver

43-8

2012

Baltimore         

+ 5

San Francisco

34-31

2011

NY Giants         

+ 3   

New England

21-17

2010

Green Bay

- 2.5

Pittsburgh

31-25

2009

New Orleans

+ 4.5

Indianapolis

31-17

2008

Pittsburgh

- 7

Arizona

27-23

2007

NY Giants         

+ 12

New England

17-14

2006   

  Indianapolis

- 6.5

Chicago

29-17

2005  

Pittsburgh

- 4 

Seattle

21-10

2004 

New England  

  - 7 

Philadelphia

24-21

Note: If you date back the past 10 Super Bowls, you’ll see the following …
AFC and NFC teams are each 5-5 SU while NFC teams are a rock-solid 7-3 ATS (against the spread) and note we’ve witnessed five outright upsets in the past seven Super Bowl games including the past three in a row.

Also — and this never used to be the case in Super Bowl history way back when — two of the last 10 Super Bowls have been cases where the underdog side got the money but lost the game (see the 2008 Arizona Cardinals and the 2004 Philadelphia Eagles).

Note that the last time an AFC betting favorite won/covered in a Super Bowl game was in the 2006 season when Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts snagged a 12-point rain-pelted win against the Chicago Bears.

Otherwise, AFC Betting Favorites in recent Super Bowls are a shoddy 2-6 versus the vig while dating back to the ’04 season.
Conversely, NFC Super Bowl Betting Favorites are 1-1 spreadwise — again, we’ve never had a Super Bowl game go off at Pick ‘Em.

One last thing here:
When the Las Vegas pointspread is 3 points-or-less the past 10 Super Bowls — and that’s only happened three times in the past 10 years -- the NFC team has won the game/the wager all three times with last year’s Seahawks, the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers copping 35-, 4- and 6-point wins, respectively.

And now hear this …
Jim Hurley will have the Sides & Totals Winners of Super Bowl XLIX when you check with us on game-day morning plus go ahead and continue to pile up the profits all this week with loads of NBA and NCAA Basketball winners right here online at www.jimhurley.com or at our toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 — go ahead and pound the books today!

NBA NEWS & NOTES —
DRAMA IN BULLS-LAND
When the Chicago Bulls (27-16) take the court for their Thursday Night TNT game against the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, all eyes will be on PG Derrick Rose and how he’s “communicating” with his teammates.

Rose quickly became the center of a storm this past Monday following Chicago’s 108-94 loss at the 4 ½-point favored Cleveland Cavaliers as the former league MVP called out teammates for a general lack of effort.

Okay, so Rose was frustrated following Chicago’s sixth loss in its last eight games but where exactly does he get the right to “call out” fellowBulls teammates after missing a gazillion games the past few years?

Remember that there was plenty of talk the past two years about Rose being healthy enough to play and yet sitting out to rest/heal his aching knees and we didn’t see any Bulls’ mates taking verbal pot shots at him, did we?

In his last five games, Rose has averaged a healthy 24 ppg and he’s dished out 34 assists in these last five outings and so maybe the star guard is feeling a little frisky but don’t be surprised if there’s some negative fallout to his post-game rant the other day — think the likes of leading scorer Jimmy Butler (20.6 ppg) or longtime board-banger Joakim Noah (9.4 rebounds-per-game) are gonna stand there and just take it?

Right now the Bulls are sitting there in fourth place in the NBA’s Eastern Conference — they’re a healthy 4 ½ games ahead of Cleveland — and you’ve got to acknowledge the fact Chicago’s 15-6 SU (straight-up) away this year and it’s not as if the sky is falling in Chitown but it’ll be interesting to see how the Bulls as a whole deal with Rose and his many criticisms the rest of the way.
One last NBA-related note here …

As we sit on the back half of January, the NBA’s Eastern Conference sports a pair of sub-.500 teams in the seventh/eighth spots (see Miami and Brooklyn) and so it appears the East will again have at least one team and maybe more that’ll make the playoffs with a losing record but how about the fact that Boston/Philadelphia/New York are all doing their “tanking” best to finish with the league’s worst record even though that team rarely ever gets the #1 overall pick in the draft.

P.S., not good for business to have those three major Eastern seaboard franchises all piling up the losses but what’s first-year Commish Adam Silver gonna do?

 

22
Aug

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