The NFL Weekend Report
NETWORK sweeps October College Triple Crown with Kentucky, South Carolina, and LSU!
College Shocker of the Month Wins with Utah (PK) over USC 24-21 and bonus play covers with Penn State (+14) vs. Ohio State 24-31.
WE GET YOU A WORD (OR TWO) ON THREE MORE WEEK 8 GAMES PLUS AN IN-DEPTH PREVIEW OF PACKERS-SAINTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
There’s no time to waste as we head into Sunday’s NFL Week 8 games and so let’s get you some pertinent comments on a batch of tilts and we’ll round up things with a look at Sunday Night’s Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints bash: Here goes ...
BUFFALO (4-3) at NEW YORK JETS (1-6) -- 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills have not finished a season with a winning record in 10 years - see 9-7 SU (straight-up) way back in 2004 - but here they are with a shot at heading into next week’s bye two games above the break-even mark but without key RBs C.J. Spiller (collarbone) and Fred Jackson (groin) - both Spiller and Jackson were injured in last weekend’s 17-16 non-cover win against Minnesota.
No secret that rookie WR Sammy Watkins (35 receptions for 433 yards including last weekend’s last-second TD grab to beat Minnesota) is Public Enemy No. 1 for the dysfunctional NY Jets who are keeping fingers crossed that new acquisition WR/KR Percy Harvin can be a positive factor here.
Spread Notes - Buffalo is 9-5 ATS (against the spread) as an underdog against the Jets the past 10 years. The Jets are 1-5-1 ATS this year and Rex Ryan’s club is a composite 17-15 spreadwise when playing fellow AFC East teams in the Ryan Era that started in 2009.
NFL Home Cookin Parlay of the Month
There are 4 Home Dogs and 3 Slight Favorites
I know which ones explode into a monster rout in front of the home crowd
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CHICAGO (3-4) at NEW ENGLAND (5-2) - 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Don’t look now but ever since the Patriots flopped facemask first in that Week 4 Monday Nighter in Kansas City (a 41-14 loss for Bill Belichick’s team) the New England guys have rounded up three consecutive wins and it sure seems as if QB Tom Brady (1,705 yards passing) has come alive.
Now, Brady and mates challenge a Jekyll and Hyde Bears bunch that can’t win at home (see 0-3) but is tough on the road as Marc Trestman’s squad has road wins against San Francisco, the New York Jets and Atlanta on the docket so far in 2014.
Forget about that post-game screaming match in Chicago’s locker room last Sunday - QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall apparently have kissed and made up - but can the Bears’ get suddenly forgotten WR Alshon Jeffery (still the team’s top pass-catcher with 504 receiving yards) back in the mix here against a Pats secondary that is far from Hall of Fame material.
Spread Notes - New England has covered four of its last five games against NFC competition. Meanwhile, Chicago is 3-4 vig-wise so far this season and the Bears enter this Week 8 game at 6-12 ATS as underdogs since the start of the 2012 season.
SEATTLE (3-3) at CAROLINA (3-3-1) - 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Are the defending champs nothing more than your modern-day wacko family? It sure sounds as if there are mucho problems surrounding Pete Carroll’s club who’ve lost back-to-back games against Dallas and St. Louis these past two weeks - now that they shipped out the aforementioned
Mr. Harvin to the J-E-T-S, can we expect things to get better immediately inside those locker room walls? Stay tuned.
On the field the Seahawks need QB Russell Wilson to do a whole lot - just don’t expect another 300-plus yard passing game and 100-plus yard rushing game all at once as was the case in last week’s painful 28-26 setback in St. Loo when Seattle’s special teams were tricked on more than one occasion.
If host Carolina - a 5-point (and growing) dog here - wants to pull the surprise than the QB Cam Newton-to-TE Greg Olsen (see 41 receptions for 493 yards) combo must make some red zone noise.
Spread Note - Seattle is still 18-10 versus the vig as betting favorites while dating back to late in the 2012 season. Carolina’s 4-3 against the odds this season and the Panthers are an electric 8-3-1 ATS at home since the start of last year.
On Sunday Night, it’s: GREEN BAY (5-2) at NEW ORLEANS (2-4) - 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Don’t ever let someone tell you that an NFL team can have its season busted with a few close-call losses:
Just look at the here-and-now New Orleans Saints who have dropped games by 3 (it overtime), 2 and 1 point(s) so far and thus the losing record and long-shot odds at even making it to this year’s post-season.
Hey, the Saints have other problems besides losing close games and that’s the defense never makes a big stand - we’re putting lots of blame on you, DC Rob Ryan! - and QB Drew Brees simply has not been himself despite the fact New Orleans has the second-ranked pass offense in the NFL (314 yards passing per game).
Last week Brees aired a costly - and silly - late-game interception that cost his club in a 24-23 loss-but-cover at Detroit and now we’ll see if the lingering shoulder injury that kayoed TE Jimmie Graham from Wednesday’s practice session (and note Graham didn’t catch a single Brees pass in last week’s Motown loss).
On the flip side, all is rosy for a Green Bay Packers team that has won/covered its last four consecutive games - yes, ever since QB Aaron Rodgers (977 yards passing with 13 TDs and 0 INTs during this streak) told his Twitter followers to R-E-L-A-X and now Mike McCarthy’s club looks to kick the Saints when they’re down here and we’ll be watching how open WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb get as they’ve combined for 14 TD grabs this year.
Spread Notes - Green Bay is 4-2-1 ATS overall this season and the Packers are just 10-14-2 spreadwise versus non-divisional foes the past two-plus years. New Orleans is 2-4 against the odds this season and note the Saints are a collective 8-2 ATS as hosts the past year-plus.
NFC Sunday Night Game of the Year
Packers at Saints (NBC)
Rodgers vs. Brees could mean fireworks...know who lights it up and who gets burned!
One team is on a roll and one team is searching to find their way. But when big name teams and Hall Of Famers such as the Packers and Saints as well as Rodgers and Brees hook up there is no such thing as an obvious play. Jim Hurley KNOWS WHICH WAY THIS ONE GOES…knows whether the visiting Pack continues to roll or whether the Saints get back in the good graces of their fans. And the GAME IS SO STRONG it is the NFC SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR…Add Prime Time Profit to your Bankroll…ONLY $20
NFL Pointspread Factoid:
Note that heading into Sunday’s action - and that starts with the 9:30 a.m. ET start between the Atlanta Falcons versus the Detroit Lions in London - that NFL Betting Favorites are 53-51-2 ATS following Denver’s 35-21 win/cover against 9-point underdog San Diego this past Thursday Night.
Note that “over” bettors are 58-48-1 ATS through the season’s first seven-plus weeks - a .547 winning rate.
NOTE: Catch all the College Football weekend wrap-ups and NFL Week 8 News/Notes too in the next edition of Jim Sez. Plus get our Redskins-Cowboys game preview on Monday Night Football.
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