The Jim Sez Midweek Report

WE’RE TALKING “WIN-WIN” WHEN IT COMES TO PEYTON MANNING’S OLD & NEW TEAMS...IT’S COLTS-TEXANS TO KICK OFF NFL WEEK 6 ACTION

PLUS WE TAKE A PEEK AT SOME OF THIS WEEKEND’S TOP COLLEGE TILTS

Know how sometimes in sports you hear about a “win-win” situation?

Well, the way we see it, that’s what you’ve got when you talk about two great AFC franchises - the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts.
Keep in mind that following the 2011 season when then-Colts QB Peyton Manning sat out the entire campaign following numerous neck surgeries, the AFC South club waved bye-bye to Manning and hello to #1 draft pick QB Andrew Luck.

Safe to say that not only both organizations have thrived since Manning departed to Denver and Luck was chosen by Indy but check out the following pointspread-related numbers as we head into the NFL Week 6 schedule:

Indianapolis is 25-14-1 ATS (against the spread) since the start of the 2012 season - that’s a sizzling .641 winning rate - and they’ve gone to the playoffs both years and right now are tied atop the AFC South with Houston - their Week 6 foe - with identical 3-2 SU (straight-up) records.

By the way, the Colts have covered four-of-five games thus far this year.

On the flip side, there’s the Denver Broncos - last year’s AFC champions -- who also have been to the post-season each of the past two years under Manning.

Note the Broncos are a collective 23-16-1 ATS since the start of the 2012 season - a rock-solid .590 winning rate versus the vig - and these days Denver is a half-game back of San Diego for AFC West honors but John Fox’s team has a “game in hand”.

So, if you go by overall pointspread records to judge success in your eyes, the Colts and Texans - ever since the day Manning left Indy for the Mile High City - are a combined 48-30-2 spreadwise for a .615 winning percentage.

Win-win is right!

NFL WEEK 6

On Thursday Night, it’s ...
INDIANAPOLIS (3-2) at HOUSTON (3-2) - 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS
It’s safe to say that the Colts and Texans should be heated rivals for the next umpteen years in a row.

The face of the Indianapolis franchise - the aforementioned Mr. Luck (1,617 yards passing with 14 TDs and 6 INTs this year) - has the Colts ranked numero uno in the NFL in passing offense these days and now he’ll get his head-to-head shot against Houston DE J.J. Watt who many folks nowadays are calling the “best player in the sport”.

The game plan for Luck and Company is to spread the wealth - note that six different players caught three-or-more passes in last Sunday’s 20-13 win/cover against the Ravens with wide-out T.Y. Hilton grabbing a game-high nine balls for 90 yards - and to make key runs when need be but Watt and friends have different ideas.

Note the Texans’ underrated defense has held four of their first five foes this year to 20 points or less and they’ve shown a real bend-but-don’t-break nature considering Houston only ranks 24th in rushing defense and 21st in passing offense.

Spread Notes - Indianapolis is 13-5-1 ATS as betting favorites the past two-plus seasons and that includes chalk back-to-back covers this year against Jacksonville, Tennessee and Baltimore. Meanwhile, Houston’s a nifty 4-1 vig-wise so far this season but note the Texans have failed to cover six of their last nine head-to-head matchups with the Colts.

Jim Hurley’s Handicappers and Bloggers have everything all mapped out for a big-time winning week and it gets started with this NFL Week 6 Thursday Night game between the Colts and Texans. Get the Side & Totals winners here plus all the other NFL and NCAA Football and all the Major-League Baseball Playoffs too when you check with us on game days either here online or at our toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 - make this an October to remember!

Remember last weekend we struck it rich with the college kids as TCU upset Oklahoma, Memphis pounded Cincinnati and California topped over Washington State. There’s plenty on the menu this week/weekend including Saturday’s college card that features such monster matchups as TCU at Baylor, Auburn at Mississippi State and North Carolina at Notre Dame!

NCAA FOOTBALL PREVIEWS
Lots of goodies on this week’s docket and so let’s get you started:

On Thursday, it’s ...BYU (4-1) at UCF (2-2) - 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last week at this time things were setting up pretty good for the BYU Cougars as they were unbeaten and whispering about breaking through the nation’s elite and possibly playing in the first-ever College Football Playoffs but last Friday night QB Taysom Hill broke his leg in the 35-20 loss to three-TD underdog Utah State and the air - predictably - has gone right out of the BYU balloon.

On the flip side, UCF has its own woes at quarterback where no-nonsense head coach George O’Leary says Nick Patti may get the lion’s share of time at quarterback if Justin Holman’s problems continue for a Knights team that beat Houston 17-12 last Thursday night despite Holman completing just 6-of-18 passes for 101 yards.

Spread Note - UCF has covered seven of its last nine home games while dating back to late 2012.

On Friday, it’s ...WASHINGTON STATE (2-4, 1-2 Pac-12) at #25 STANFORD (3-2, 1-1 Pac-12) - 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
Safe to say the Stanford season has gone up in smoke thanks to these early three-point losses to both USC and Notre Dame - so you have to wonder if head coach David Shaw can rally his club that’s averaged less than 15 points a game in tilts against USC, Washington and Notre Dame.

Maybe the key is simply bringing back kickoffs against this Washington State team that allowed a pair of KO returns for touchdowns in last Saturday’s wild 60-59 loss to California ... no wonder the special teams coach was canned after that one!

Spread Note - Note that the road teams have covered eight of the last 10 games in this rivalry and that includes Stanford’s 24-17 non-cover win as 25-point home favorites in 2012.

On Saturday, it’s ...
#1 FLORIDA STATE (5-0, 3-0 ACC) at SYRACUSE (2-3, 0-1 ACC) - 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

Do the Florida State Seminoles need to be concerned with “style points” these days?

Hey, let’s face it, the defending national champions have hardly resembled the juggernaut they were a year ago when Jimbo Fisher’s club beat 11 different teams by 27-or-more points as this year’s crew is just 1-4 spreadwise and hasn’t had too many laughers.

The ‘Noles picked up the beat with last weekend’s 43-3 win/cover against 37.5-point dog Wake Forest and now QB Jameis Winston (1,288 yards passing with 8 TDs and 5 INTs) looks to shred a Syracuse defense that hasn’t gotten much help from an offense that looks to be going to a two-QB system here after QB Terrel Hunt’s recent woes.

Spread Note - Florida State is a solid 8-4 spreadwise in ACC play since the start of last year.

NORTH CAROLINA (2-3) at #6 NOTRE DAME (5-0) - 3:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Don’t look now but the ND Fighting Irish is back in the “conversation” when it comes to this year’s College Football Playoff - although don’t be shocked if Brian Kelly’s club is sneaking a peek at next week’s foe (that’s Florida State).

No doubt the Irish needed some late-game magic to turn back Stanford in rainy South Bend as the QB Everett Golson-to-TE Ben Koyack scoring strike in the deep corner of the end zone kept alive Notre Dame’s playoff dreams and now the Irish will challenge the country’s 118th-ranked pass defense and one that already surrendered 70 points to East Carolina and 50 points in Clemson in recent weeks.

Spread Note - Notre Dame has covered four of its first five games this season but the Irish are just 3-8 versus the vig when laying double-digit prices the past two-plus seasons.

Hey, we’re saving up those monster Top 10 battles - that’s #9 TCU at #5 Baylor and #2 Auburn at #3 Miss State - for the next edition of Jim Sez, so we’re far from finished with all of this weekend’s great College Football games!

Now, a final pointspread update on the college crowd - here’s the teams still without a pointspread win or a pointspread loss:

  • The Baylor Bears are 4-0-1 ATS thus far and note all of their games came as twin-figure betting favorites;
  • The Connecticut Huskies are a dour 0-5 ATS under brand-new head coach Bob Diaco and note the Dawgs are averaging just 14.8 ppg so far;
  • The Memphis Tigers are 4-0-1 vig-wise this season and hats off to this American Athletic Conference for covers against UCLA and Cincinnati and a “push” at Ole Miss;
  • The Ole Miss Rebels are also 4-0-1 ATS with SEC covers against Vanderbilt and Alabama among the pointspread conquests;
  • The North Carolina Tar Heels are a sickly 0-5 ATS this year and the ACC gang already have lost by 29, 15 and 17 points the past three weeks;
  • TCU is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year with “Power 5” wins against Minnesota and Oklahoma.

Note: Get more NFL Week 6 Previews in the next edition of Jim Sez.

24
Sep

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