Saturday College and Sunday NFL Previews

IT'S ANOTHER THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL WINNER FOR JIM HURLEY'S NETWORK as the  Falcons (+9½) cover against the Saints, 17-13.

Friday Wins With Navy in a 3 Overtime Thriler!

SAINTS SACK RYAN & FALCONS 17-13 (BUT DON’T COVER THE TD-PLUS PRICE TAG)AS WE KICK OFF THE NFL WEEK 12 CARD …

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEKEND REPORT –WE CHECK IN ON THREE OF SATURDAY’S BIGGEST BASHES INCLUDING #12 TEXAS A&M AT #22 LSU PLUS A LOOK AT AMERICA’S HOTTEST SPREAD SIDES (AND WHY!)

By Jim Hurley

The New Orleans Saints got their season sweep over Atlanta with last night’s 17-13 non-cover win at the Georgia Dome – but even with five sacks of Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and yet another 100-yard receiving night for all-pro TE Jimmy Graham (that man’s a beast!) there were the 7 ½-point home dogs hanging tough deep into the final quarter of play.

Don’t look now but the Saints (9-2) now have failed to cover four-of-five road games this season and next up is that Week 13 Monday Night Football bash in Seattle … maybe QB Drew Brees and friends have glitzy stats but they sure are making their financial backers stone-cold broke when the team packs a bag!

We’ll have lots more NFL Week 12 goodies in tomorrow’s Jim Sez column but in NCAA Football action on Saturday, it’s …

#12 TEXAS A&M (8-2, 4-2 SEC) at #22 LSU (7-3, 3-3) – 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Hey, did you ever think you would see an LSU game in which the “totals” price is 71 ½ points … and rising?

No doubt that offense fully expects to take center stage in this high-profile Southeastern Conference duel, but instead of just tossing you the stats for Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel (okay, he’s thrown for 3,313 yards and 31 TDs so far this year) and LSU signal-caller Zach Mettenberger – he’s thrown for 2,733 yards and 20 TDs – maybe it’s best to acknowledge the fact that LSU’s scored 35-or-more points in seven games this season while the A&M Aggies have cranked out 41-or-more points in all 10 of their games … yowie!

Both clubs come into this bash off a bye and no doubt the home folks tuned up a ground game that ranks a pedestrian 52nd nationally (184.8 ypg) as Les Miles’ crew looks to play keep-a-way with Mr. Manziel here.

Spread Note – The LSU Tigers are just 2-5-1 ATS (against the spread) since mid-September and overall the Bengals are 5-8-1 versus the vig in SEC play since the start of the 2012 season.

#17 ARIZONA STATE (8-2, 6-1 Pac-12) at #14 UCLA (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12) – 7 p.m. ET, Fox

Don’t tell these Pac-12 South teams that they’re eventually gonna serve as “sacrificial lambs” in the conference championship game next month against either Oregon or Stanford:

As far as red-hot Arizona State is concerned, there’s real reason for dreaming about a Rose Bowl berth this year and that’s something the Sun Devils have not experienced since January 1, 1997. Here, second-year head coach Todd Graham will ask his defense to batten down the hatches against LB-turned-RB Myles Jack (see four rushing TDs in last Friday’s 41-31 win/cover against Washington) and note the Tempe team has won five consecutive Pac-12 games with opponents averaging 18.8 ppg in these tilts and with A-State registering 18 sacks and 10 INTs.

If Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly can stay in an upright position here (yes, he’s been sacked eight times in the past two games) then the 2 ½-point road favs should rise to the occasion once again.

Spread Note – UCLA owns a nifty 8-2 pointspread advantage in its last 10 head-to-head showdowns against rival Arizona State and that includes last year’s wild 45-43 win as 6 ½-point road underdogs.

Here’s an important note …

My handicappers and bloggers will have all the weekend winners and you can get NCAA Football, NFL Week 12 play and all the NBA/NCAA Basketball action when you check with us here at Jim Hurley’s Network toll-free at 1-800-323-4453 or right here online at www.jimhurley.com.

Check is any time after 1 p.m. ET today and after 10 a.m. ET on Saturday/Sunday.

Also on the Saturday menu, it’s …

#8 MISSOURI (9-1, 5-1 SEC) at #24 OLE MISS (7-3, 3-3 SEC) – 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN

It’s the age-old question here of just when is it the right time to re-insert a star player:

The Mizzou Tigers are popping QB James Franklin back into the starting lineup here – he hasn’t started the last four games but did see relief action two weeks ago in a 48-17 win against Kentucky – but 13th-year head coach Gary Pinkel will sit Maty Mauk, and look for Franklin to keep the Tigers on the path to a possible berth in the SEC Championship Game.

On the flip side, note that Ole Miss – winners of its last four in a row while averaging a hefty 42.8 ppg – again relies on QB Bo Wallace (averaging 266.4 yards passing per game to rank fourth among SEC quarterbacks) to shine with the occasional input of effective back-up QB Barry Brunetti.

Can Ole Miss protect its quarterbacks here from a Missouri team that leads the conference with 34 sacks and 17 picks … we shall see!

Spread Note – Missouri is a riveting 8-2 against the Las Vegas price tags this season and the Tigers have covered all four of their road games this year (at Indiana, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Kentucky).

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL’S HOTTEST SPREAD SIDES

So who’s been piling up the most profits on the College Football scene lately?

Here’s a quick-hitter look at the hottest spread sides in the land …

*Auburn rolls into next weekend’s Iron Bowl bash against Alabama riding a tasty eight-game spread winning streak and – sure that deflected pass to beat Georgia was the latest pointspread “W” – but mainly this club’s quietly done it on defense where five of Auburn’s last seven foes have scored 23 points or less.

*Duke guns for its sixth consecutive pointspread win when it takes on host Wake Forest this weekend, and did you know the Blue Devils have beaten these last five foes by a per-game average of 16 points? Note that the Dookies have exceeded the 30-point mark on seven different occasions this year and the Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS when doing so.

Hey, don’t look now but the Minnesota Golden Gophers have reeled off four straight spread wins while heading into Saturday’s home game against rival Wisconsin. If you wish to credit acting head coach Tracy Claeys for all the miracle work with this Minny team, then go right ahead but the stats show this Big 10 team ranks 20th in the country in rushing (averaging 218.5 ypg) and the oft-overlooked defense has held eight-of-10 foes to 24 points or less … good stuff!

North Carolina – maybe the unlikeliest teams on this hottest spread sides list – has cranked out five consecutive covers despite the fact this club’s playing a backup quarterback and started off the year at 1-5 SU (straight-up) and basically left for dead. All hail head coach Larry Fedora, who not only saved his own job but might have put himself into the discussion for bigger/better positions (did someone say Florida?).

Northern Illinois snagged a fifth straight spread win with Wednesday night’s 35-17 triumph at 2-point pup Toledo and while QB Jordan Lynch remains the numero uno reason to believe in these Huskies we’ve gotta say “hats off” to a defense that’s allowed 20 points or less in five of the team’s last six games.

Oklahoma State’s roaring into the Saturday night showdown against Baylor riding a five-game ATS winning streak and let’s give a round of applause to ninth-year head coach Mike Gundy who’s more than simply that YouTube sensation from years ago. The Cowboys can “ball” and Gundy gets credit for finally settling on the best of all possible quarterbacks in Clint Chelf.

Temple may have been last week’s version of the heartbreak kids with that 39-36 home loss against UCF, but did you realize in the process the Owls covered their sixth game in a row? Now, Temple’s laying points this weekend against UConn and that’s the first time Matt Rhule’s team is the chalk side since late September. Just sayin’!

Wisconsin has banged out six straight spread wins since that 41-20 non-cover triumph over 22 ½-point dog Purdue way back on Sept. 21st and while the potent ground game has been the key the truth is Wisky sports the nation’s sixth-ranked defense … so there!

 

IT'S THE NFL WEEK 12 SUNDAY PREVIEWS & FORECASTS WITH BRONCOS-PATRIOTS IN A PRIME-TIME BEAUTY PLUS WE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SURGING PANTHERS, CHECK IN ON THE UP-AND-DOWN J-E-T-S AND THE COLTS, CARDS COLLIDE IN THE DESERT

By Jim Hurley:

'Twas the weekend before Thanksgiving and all through the NFL house there were plenty of creatures stirring- there's the Carolina Panthers riding a six-game winning streak and how 'bout the born-again New York Giants who've won four in a row following that horrific 0-and-6 start?

Yes, sir, there are major movers-and-shakers in the league where they play for pay right at the start of the holiday season and we're here to tell you all about 'em:

Note that in an earlier-week edition of Jim Sez we brought you in-depth previews/forecasts of a pair of NFL Week 12 Sunday games as we had plenty to say about the AFC West matchup between the San Diego Chargers at the 9-and-1 Kansas City Chiefs plus we checked in on the aforementioned NY Giants for their home game against NFC East rival Dallas.

So let's keep the pro gridiron beat rollin' on here with more action as we check out four games on Sunday's card including the one everyone's talkin' about in prime time:

In NFL Week 12 play on Sunday Night, it's ...

DENVER (9-1) at NEW ENGLAND (7-3)- 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Get ready for more camera close-ups of those heavily bandaged ankles of Broncos' QB Peyton Manning- the Denver slinger has 34 touchdown throws this year and remember he didn't even take a hit in last week's 27-17 win against Kansas City- but the proof of the pudding in this prime-time game could well rest on whether or not Manning has enough quality connections with TE Julius Thomas (knee) and slot WR Wes Welker (concussion) both iffy or completely out here.

The Patriots are banking on a repeat of history from their QB Tom Brady who has 12 TDs and 1 INT in his last five games against the Broncos.

The $64,000 question here is will New England RB Steven Ridley be able to keep a handle on the ball here after he's suffered with "fumbleitis" for much of the current campaign. Hey, one red-zone fumble by Ridley could be the difference between a Pats win and a loss.

Spread Notes - Denver sports a solid-if-unspectacular 6-4 ATS (against the spread) record so far this year but note the Broncos are a heady 13-8 ATS away the past two-plus seasons. New England has split its first 10 pointspread verdicts this year and the Patriots are just 26-23-1 ATS as hosts dating back to the start of the 2008 campaign.


In Sunday afternoon action, it's ...
CAROLINA (7-3) at MIAMI (5-5)- 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Folks, you have to go all the back to October 6th to find the last time the Carolina Panthers lost a football game (see Arizona 22, Carolina 6) and now the Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed the Panthers as 4.5-point betting favs for this clash in South Florida against a Dolphins team that has won only twice since September 30th ... the ships passing in the opposite directions metaphor is cute but the reality is Ron Rivera's NFC South club is hotter than a Texas street in summertime and here you've got to wonder if Panthers' QB Cam Newton (10 aerial TDs and 3 rushing TDs during this current six-game winning streak) can make the big plays at crunch time.

Keep in mind Miami sports the AFC's worst rushing defense while yielding 152.3 yards per game and so RB DeAngelo Williams (team-leading 579 yards rushing) could be a real "factor back" here and odds are Carolina will get 'em 20-plus rushes in this interconference affair ... bank on it!

Spread Notes- Carolina storms into this road tilt on a six-game spread winning streak and the Panthers are 9-4 ATS away since the start of last year. On the flip side, Miami's a dead-even but vig-losing 5-5 against the odds so far this season and the Dolphins are a collective 14-7 vig-wise as underdo sides since mid-way of the 2011 season ... you can look it up!


NEW YORK JETS (5-5) at BALTIMORE (4-6)- 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The history books say the NY Jets are the first team since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger to win one, lose one for 10 straight games but will the beat go on here for the AFC East crew (and that would mean a "W" here)?

The Jets can talk about rookie QB Geno Smith and his inconsistent ways till they're green in the face but what likely will decide this game is how the Jets' defense holds up against Ravens QB Joe Flacco who threw two INTs in last week's marathon 23-20 OT loss in Chicago (and that included a really bad "pick six").

Flacco will lean more on his team's ground game that cranked out a season-high 174 rushing yards last week but did you know Baltimore's scored 20 points or less in each of its last five games? Yikes!

Spread Notes- Baltimore is a wacky 4-4-2 versus the vig so far in 2013 and did you know the Ravens have covered four of their five head-to-head matchups against the NY Jets since 2004? Meanwhile, the Jets are a collective 41-39 ATS in the Rex Ryan Era that started in 2009 and that includes a 22-21 ATS log in away games- not as good as you thought, right?


INDIANAPOLIS (7-3) at ARIZONA (6-4)- 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
No doubt the numero uno storyline for this clash is the fact former Colts interim coach Bruce Arians is going up against QB Andrew Luck and friends but you do have to wonder whom has the advantage here?

Arians knows Luck's strengths and weaknesses but can his Cardinals' defense rattle the second-year star here? Luck (2,430 yards passing with 14 TDs and 6 INTs this year) generally does major damage when on the run and let's see how 'Zona handles Indy TE Coby Fleener (37 receptions) who often is the beneficiary of Luck's chucks when he's rolling out or scrambling for open space.

One X-factor for the Redbirds here: Arizona WR Michael Floyd- averaging 15.6 ypc- is becoming a real home run threat these days and he could get targeted 10-or-more times here providing QB Carson Palmer is kept in the upright position.

Spread Notes - Arizona has covered five of its seven non-NFC West games so far this season but the Cardinals are just 8-17 ATS as betting favorites since the start of the 2009 season. Indianapolis is 5-4-1 spreadwise so far this season and that includes a spiffy 3-0 ATS mark when in the underdog role with outright upset wins against San Francisco, Seattle and Denver.

Take note ...Check with us here at Jim Hurley's Network at the toll-free # of 1-800-323-4453 or right here online for all the weekend Football & Basketball winners.

NOTE: Lots more in the next edition of Jim Sez including a Monday Night Football Preview/Forecast- that's the San Francisco 49ers at the Washington Redskins.
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