Saturday College Previews
SATURDAY COLLEGE PREVIEWS
WE GET YOU QUICK-HITTERS PREVIEWS OF ALL THE BCS TOP 10 TEAMS IN ACTION ...
PLUS WHY A TRIO OF COLLEGE CLUBS HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTE POINTSPREAD BUSTS
By Jim Hurley:
Hey, we loved the comment made last weekend by ESPN game/studio analyst Rod Gilmore who stated the following (maybe not quite verbatim):
If you-re still in the BCS top 10, than you have a shot (to win it all); if you-re not part of the BCS top 10, forget it!
No doubt it-s not every day we agree with the talking heads at the "sports family of networks" but we believe Mr. Gilmore hit the proverbial nail on the head and so - with that in mind - let-s dissect in quick-hitter fashion here what the BCS Top 10 teams have on their respective plates on this final Saturday in the month of October:
#1 ALABAMA - vs. Miss State, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Tide-s a somewhat bloated 24-point betting favorite against SEC West rival Miss State but maybe Nick Saban-s crew is a three-plus TD favorite against this #11th-ranked BCS squad from Starkville simply because nobody scores on 'Bama! Note that Alabama (7-0, 4-0 SEC) has surrendered a grand total of 58 points so far (or 8.3 points per game) and may we repeat an earlier-week statement made here in this Jim Sez column that Tide QB AJ McCarron has 16 TDs and 0 INTs ... va-va-va voom!
#2 FLORIDA - vs. #10 GEORGIA (in Jacksonville) - 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
You know the deal on this SEC games on CBS this year - most have been total blowouts (see last week-s 44-11 win by Florida over South Carolina, for the latest example) and so must admit we haven-t heard the dulcet tones of Verne Lundquist as much as in past years but this one should be a tight fit despite the fact the Las Vegas know-it-alls have it at Gators minus 6 ½ points at press time.
Florida (7-0, 6-0 SEC) has managed to pound out a half-dozen league wins already even though you-d have to say Will Muschamp-s crew is a bit one-dimensional with the country-s 24th-best ground game and 113th-ranked passing attack.
If Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC) doesn-t play "soft" on defense - an inside joke there after Dawgs senior S Shawn Williams called the team-s stop unit just that following a Monday practice - than this could be a major free-for-all at the finish line.
#3 KANSAS STATE - vs. Texas Tech, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
So, what will Bill Snyder-s K-State squad do for a proverbial encore following last weekend-s dynamic 55-14 win at West Virginia? Well, Kansas State (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) is shooting for its first 8-0 start since 1999 and new Heisman Trophy front-runner QB Collin Klein (10 TDs and 2 INTs) keeps spreading the wealth and one question here is can T-Tech-s secondary blanket WR Tyler Lockett who is averaging nearly 18 yards a catch this year.
Stat of this game: Kansas State has allowed only 7 passing touchdowns this year and it has 8 interceptions. Wow!
#4 OREGON - vs. Colorado, 3 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network
The Ducks continue to pile up the impressive offensive numbers - they-re averaging 317 yards per game on the ground this year - but head coach Chip Kelly may have to apply the brakes this weekend against 45 ½-point dog Colorado or this could be one of those 80-14 type tilts. Want to watch for something specific here? Than keep an eye on Oregon TE Colt Lyeria (only 12 receptions but 4 TDs) who is a combo of New England Patriots- TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski.
#5 NOTRE DAME - at #8 OKLAHOMA, 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Let-s just say that the 7-0 Notre Dame Fighting Irish would sign for another one of these just-get-by wins - the South Bend gang has beaten four foes by seven points or less this year including last week-s nail-biting 17-14 non-cover win against BYU but two things Brian Kelly-s club needs to accomplish here is shorten the game (if the Irish win time of possession by 10 minutes or more, it will pull the surprise here in Norman) and don-t allow Sooners wide-outs to get many YAC big plays. Note that Oklahoma (5-1) has forced nine turnovers and registered six quarterback sacks in its last three games - all resounding wins against Texas Tech, Texas and Kansas.
#6 LSU - The Tigers (7-1, 3-1 SEC) have a bye this weekend; next up is the Nov. 3rd home game vs. Alabama. 'Nuff said!
#7 OREGON STATE - at Washington, 10:15 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network
Historians know that Oregon State (6-0, 4-1 Big 12) has never started off a season with seven consecutive wins but here Mike Riley-s club (a four-point betting favorite) has major karma on its side as QB Sean Mannion is back after missing a pair of games plus the Beavers know they can get to Washington QB Keith Price (8 TDs and 8 INTs) who seemingly has regressed from the kid we saw light it up in last year-s Alamo Bowl loss to Baylor.
#9 USC - at Arizona, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC regional
Don-t forget about these Troy Boys 'cause they still have a pulse when it gets to playing in this winter-s BCS Championship Game. In fact, USC (6-1, 4-1 Pac-12) has won all four of its games following that mid-September loss to Stanford by twin-figure margins and QB Matt Barkley enters this clash in the desert with the conference-s all-time mark of 102 passing touchdowns after tossing six scoring strikes in that 50-6 win against lowly Colorado last weekend. First team to 40 wins here?
Jim Hurley and his Network of Handicappers and Bloggers have all the NCAA Football, NFL Week 8 and - of course - Baseball-s World Series Winners just for you and so go ahead and climb aboard right now with America-s #1 Handicapper! Make sure to get all this week-s key gridiron games and the World Series winners and be sure to check in with us on Game Days either right here online or at our exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 for all the winners.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING BUSTS
Let-s take a few moments to examine three College Football teams that are really bankrupting their backers this year:
BOSTON COLLEGE - The cries to fire fourth-year head coach Frank Spaziani certainly have been heard in/around Chestnut Hill as he-ll get axed the minute this dreadful 2012 season comes to an end but all you know right now is BC-s a miserable 1-6 against the spread this year and there appears to be more than enough offensive ammo so that shouldn-t be the case. However, Spaziani and his offensive coaches have botched plenty of red-zone opportunities this year and QB Chase Rettig has not always been given much help by his pass-catchers and so $100 per-play wagers on the Eagles this season will have got you in the hole some $560 ... it-s time to cry uncle!
IOWA - So much for the good old days under 14th-year boss-man Kirk Ferentz whose Hawkeyes enter this weekend-s Big 10 game against Northwestern with a rotten 2-5 ATS mark that includes home losses to 3 ½-point pup Iowa State, 14 ½-point dog Central Michigan and - than just last weekend - to 1 ½-point underdog Penn State. The 'Eyes have been bogged down by terrible quarterback play from veteran James Vandenberg plus the ground game-s been spotty with injuries (as usual) marring the day-to-day makeup of this running back corps. Throw into the mix the fact that Iowa-s once-proud defense has taken a step (or two) backwards and you get another bad spread season from a once-dependable program.
VIRGINIA - It-s hard to believe that the Wahoos still haven-t covered a single pointspread this season as Mike London-s crew heads into this bye week at 0-7-1 against the odds (the push came in the season-opening 43-19 so-what win against Richmond) and go ahead and blame any/all of the following items: Inconsistent QB play whether it be one-time starter Michael Rocco or current #1 Phillip Sims, awful red-zone execution and no mental/physical toughness on "D". Folks, we-ve watched a handful of Virginia games this year and they are your prototypical "bad team" whether it be poor tackling when defending opponents- third-down plays or ill-timed penalties. Thomas Jefferson would not have been too proud!
GET 'EM WHILE THEY'RE HOT: THE NFL WEEK 8 SUNDAY AFTERNOON KEY PREVIEWS ARE HERE AS WE CHECK OUT THE UNBEATEN FALCONS AT EAGLES AND ROUND II OF GIANTS-COWBOYS ...PLUS THE HOTTEST NFL DOGS (AND WHY!)
By Jim Hurley:
Straight from the "what's-going-on-here" file: NFL Betting Favorites exited Thursday night's game in Minnesota - see Tampa Bay 36, Minnesota (- 5) 17 - with a 37-64-4 spread record this year (or a 36.6 winning rate).
Folks, we've said it before in this Jim Sez column space and we'll say it again ...We never/ever remember going this deep into an NFL Season with either the Favorites or the Underdogs sporting such a lopsided won/loss mark and no longer can we hear as possible reasons for the great run by NFL dogs the following: The replacement officials had a hand in it, the league's best teams had too many key injuries, blah-blah-blah.
The here-and-now fact is NFL Dogs have run wild through the first seven-plus weeks of this 2012 season and below here's a list of the best buys - and why -- as point-grabbers thus far:
ARIZONA - The Cardinals are a healthy 3-0-1 ATS (against the spread) this year with nearly all that damage done to opponents during the first three weeks of this season but it's no secret that a rock-ribbed defense has been key. Note that the Redbirds allowed 6, 18 and 6 points in season-starting covers against Seattle, New England and Philadelphia, respectively, and it's rather telling that Arizona is 3-1 spreadwise when holding folks to 18 points or less and 0-2-1 versus the vig whenever surrendering 19-or-more points.
MIAMI - How 'bout a round of applause for the Dolphins who are 3-1-1 spreadwise as pups this season with covers against Oakland, Arizona and Cincinnati with the lone spread setback coming in a Week One tilt in Houston. Sure, rookie head coach Joe Philbin has squeezed every bit of energy from his AFC East team with defense - and that's a better-than-you-thought defense - keying the way as the Fish held the Raiders to a mere 13 points while the Bengals also scored just 13 points back in a Week 5 clash that Miami won by four points. Toss into the mix the fact that rookie QB Ryan Tannehill - for the most part - hasn't killed the Dolphins in any really close games and you see why Miami's been a betting bargain plus points.
NEW YORK GIANTS - So what else is new, right? The defending Super Bowl champions are 2-0-1 ATS as underdogs this season with covers against Carolina and San Francisco (both were lopsided road wins as 3- and 7-point dogs, respectively) to go along with that 19-17 loss/push in Philadelphia back in Week 4 action. It's no secret that the G-men play their best ball when "disrespected" by the Las Vegas oddsmakers and their opponents and just date back to that first Super Bowl-winning season under head coach Tom Coughlin and you shall note the Giants are an electric 25-11-1 ATS as dogs over a five-plus year time frame - folks, that's a .694 winning rate in this wagering category that's even better than how NFL dogs have fared overall this year (.634 winning rate). Okay, so it helps having the best fourth-quarter quarterback in this generation as Eli Manning seems extra-geeked when in the dog role but - let's face it - when you're taking the Giants plus points you are generally taking the better team plus points no matter where the game is being played.
ST. LOUIS - The Rams head into their London game this weekend against TD-favorite New England with a nifty 5-2 spread mark this season (all while in the dog role) and first-year head coach Jeff Fisher surely deserves much of the credit because this offense simply has not clicked (see a 15.2 ppg average the past five weeks) but new kicker Greg Zuerlien has saved their bacon more than once and this new-and-improved secondary is keeping enemy air games silent for much of the time. Note that this NFC West crew has allowed 13, 3 and 17 points in three of its last four games and the fact St. Loo has proven it can win the close games - see a 3-point win against Washington and a 6-point victory versus Seattle - shows that this franchise is getting back on track and folks willing to plunk down a bob or two on 'em plus points have been duly rewarded.
SEATTLE - Betcha didn't realize these Seahawks were a perfect 5-and-oh against the odds as underdog sides this year! Pete Carroll's crew has - in fact - won four of these five games in outright upset fashion including that gallant 24-23 come-from-behind win against 4 ½-point fav New England two weekends ago and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the combo of a turnover-minded defense with a first-year quarterback (Russell Wilson) who isn't afraid of late-game challenges has been a real key in piling up the loot as point-takers this season. The Seahawks are underdogs once again this Sunday in Detroit and should be latching onto points at least another three or four more times down the road ... so you have been warned.
TAMPA BAY - Now that the Bucs and their backers cashed in the aforementioned Thursday Night game in Minnesota, this NFC South crew is a delicious 4-1 ATS as dogs this year and that includes barely sneaking under the price tag in earlier-year losses at both the 7 ½-point favored Giants and the 7-point favorite Dallas Cowboys. The Bucs are often a good dog play because they have a more explosive offensive nature these days - QB Josh Freeman is being given more freedom to throw it and throw it deep - plus Greg Schiano's crew is a sure-tackling bunch on "D" and that nose-for-the-ball reputation has helped get T-Bay over the top in some big games this year.
WASHINGTON - Last but not least, these Redskins are 4-1 vig-wise as underdog sides this year and it ain't all just because of mega-star QB Robert Griffin III. The 'Skins have a high-quality ground game these days led by rookie RB Alfred Morris and a bang-your-head offensive line plus the fact the Washington defense has made some significant red-zone stands this year - most notably early on in that 38-26 win against 2-point fav Minnesota a couple of weeks ago - and that's helped the cause for Mike Shanahan's crew.
So, there you have it: Seven NFL teams that have thrived big-time as underdog sides this year - and who's to say their magic is gonna run out anytime soon, right?
Now, here's a couple of NFL Week 8 Sunday afternoon key previews ...
ATLANTA (6-0) at PHILADELPHIA (3-3) - 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Wow ... the NFL's lone unbeaten is going up against an Eagles team that is 13-0 SU (straight-up) following a bye week under 14th-year head coach Andy Reid.
Did someone say something's gotta give?
No doubt the Eagles were the major newsmakers last week while both of these teams had bye weeks as Reid - under pressure from ownership - axed defensive coordinator Juan Castillo in favor of secondary coach Todd Bowles but will that be an answer for a Philly team that has self-destructed on both sides of the ball this year?
One-time Falcons QB Michael Vick already has thrown 8 INTs to go along with his 5 lost fumbles and we stopped counting a while back how many sacks/hurries/hits had been put on Vick by enemy defenses.
No doubt the bye week allowed Vick time to rest his battered/beaten-down body but here Philadelphia must get something positive from RB LeSean McCoy who has managed only 75 rushing yards on 30 carries in his last two outings.
On the flip side, Atlanta wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones have combined for 67 receptions and 8 TDs thus far - if QB Matt Ryan (14 TDs and 8 INTs for the league's eighth-ranked passing attack) is given just enough time to spot 'em deep, the Eagles and their boo-happy fans will be miserable again at the conclusion of this one.
NEW YORK GIANTS (5-2) at DALLAS (3-3) - 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Round I sure got a whole lotta press, didn't it?
The Dallas Cowboys' season-opening 24-17 win at the 3 ½-point favorite New York Giants (there we go again with another NFL underdog winner and the one game that started it all!) has been all the talk in Gotham City this past week but if you listen to the Giants they claim that things will be different here where Coughlin's club has won all three games it has played at the still-new Cowboys Stadium.
The Giants have shrugged off that "kick their (butts)" summer-time chatter by Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and insist that this is less about bulletin board material and more about in-game execution:
Did you realize the Giants garnered a season-low 269 offensive yards in that initial meeting with the 'Boys back on Sept. 5th and you might recall that NYG wide-out Victor Cruz - one of the NFL's top three playmakers this year - dropped three or four Manning passes in that tilt?
If the Cowboys are gonna get their first regular-season "clean sweep" over the Giants since way back in 2007, than Dallas QB Tony Romo (307 yards passing and three TDs in that first game against the Jints) must be razor-sharp and butter-fingered WR Dez Bryant must catch everything thrown in his general direction ... got it, guys?
Jim Hurley and his Network of Handicappers and Bloggers have all the NFL Week 8 Side & Totals Winners this weekend plus get the World Series Winners and all the College Football games too - go ahead and climb aboard right now with America's #1 Handicapper! Check in with us on Game Days either right here online or at our exclusive toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 for all the winners. So, let's go ahead and pile up the profits together right thru Super Bowl XLVII ... okay?
NOTE: Catch our NFL Week 8 Sunday Night Game Preview - that's New Orleans at Denver -- in our next edition of Jim Sez.
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