NFL Week 7 Report

Panthers (+3) 49ers 23-20 WON!





By Jim Hurley:

Here's a strange-but-true factoid about the NFL Week #7 schedule:

The two teams that battled in last year's AFC Championship Game - that's the New York Jets and the Indianapolis Colts - both draw their 2010 byes this weekend while the two teams that slugged it out in last year's NFC Championship Game - the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings - are coming off wins on the very same week for the first time this year. Really!

Go ahead and look it up: The Saints and Vikes had not won on the same day/week until last Sunday when New Orleans crushed Tampa Bay 31-6 while Minny slipped past Dallas 24-21.

And talk about the hand of fate taking some wild swings:

Who thought prior to the start of this 2010 season that a Week #7 game between St. Louis at Tampa Bay would pit a pair of .500-or-better teams up against one another or that the San Francisco at Carolina game would match up teams with a combined won/loss record of 1-10. Egads!

You better believe this has been an odd duck season so far in NFL-land where - we remind you - NFL Betting Favorites are 33-51-5 ATS (against the spread) for a wobbly .393 winning rate (note there's also been one pick 'em game in the league as well).

The chalk sides actually come off a rare winning week - Favorites registered a 7-5-2 ATS log last week - and now the question heading into Week #7 is what clubs really need to be on "upset alert"... or does the whole league really have to take a step back and believe that maybe there's no super team out there at all and some 80-to-85 percent of this league really can be separated by only one or two plays per game.

Lots to say in this weekend edition of Jim Sez but first this important reminder: Jim Hurley and his Network of Handicappers and Bloggers get you the NFL, College Football and all Major-League Baseball Playoff Championship Series and World Series Winners when you either call us at our toll-free telephone # of 1-800-323-4453 or else when you simply log online right here online.

The Jim Hurley Network is hitting 69 percent for the season in the NFL, and racking up huge profit margins. We're doing it thanks to moneymakers like last week, when we targeted the Seattle-Chicago game, with the Seahawks (+6½) against a team that's had problems scoring points and had Jay Cutler coming back from a concussion. We were all over the dog and the Seahawks were soon all over the Bears in a 23-20 outright upset they controlled throughout. We've pinpointed another big play on Sunday, where the line is going to miss the mark and this time we anticipate a double-digit cover. We're looking at games like Pittsburgh-Miami and New England-San Diego, along with division rivalry games like Arizona-Seattle and Oakland-Denver. Make sure to get with us and cash in the worst number on the board! Click Here, it's just $20.



MINNESOTA (2-3) at GREEN BAY (3-3) - 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Everyone wants to know: Will all the "distractions"swirling around Vikings QB Brett Favre have a negative effect on his play here against his old team? In a word (or two) ... stay tuned!

One thing for sure is that Favre feasted off the Green Bay defense a year ago when he threw for a combined 515 yards with 7 TDs and 0 INTs in a clean-sweep by the Vikings - Minny won 30-23 at the Metrodome and than four weeks later kayoed the Packers 38-26 in an emotional return by Favre to Lambeau Field - but times have changed this year as Favre's aired seven picks already and his ailing right elbow might not allow him to go deep in this clash against a GB team that is hoping the return of CB Al Harris (left knee) and S Atari Bigby (left ankle) along with key LB Clay Mathews (hamstring) will be an elixir for Mike McCarthy's club.

You might well consider this a "must-win"spot for both of these teams but if the Vikings do lose then getting back over the .500 mark the rest of the way could be a real problem - note Minnesota's at New England in Week #8 and plays at Chicago in Week #10.

Spread Notes - The road teams have covered 13 of the last 20 games between these NFC North rivals but note Minnesota is just 8-11-1 ATS away since late in the 2008 campaign. Green Bay comes into this tilt on a four-game spread losing skid and yet the Packers still are a collective 34-21-2 vig-wise the past three-plus seasons
NEW ENGLAND (4-1) at SAN DIEGO (2-4) - 4:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Maybe that Super Bowl "window"has closed for the SD Chargers - and maybe it truly gets slam shut in their faces with a loss here.

Hey, Norv Turner's team has built a reputation for slow starts, fast regular-season finishes and then playoff fade-outs in his three-plus years on the job but it could well be that a fast finish to this 2010 regular season won't nearly be enough to save the Bolts' hides.

Last week's 20-17 loss at 8½-point dog St. Louis "featured"QB Philip Rivers getting sacked seven times - if the San Diego O-line can keep him in an upright position for most of this game than maybe the AFC West crew can register a "W"as Rivers does lead the NFL in passing yards (2,008) and is tied for second with his 12 TD passes.

The health report, however, on two of Rivers' favorite targets isn't great: Both All-Pro TE Antonio Gates (ankle) and WR Malcom Floyd (hamstring) are iffy for this clash against a Patriots team that last week had to basically play five quarters of football en route to a 23-20 overtime win against Baltimore. One key here is the production of New England RB Danny Woodhead - a wavier wire steal from the Jets - who last weekend accounted for 115 all-purpose yards and picked up six key first downs.

Spread Notes - New England is 24-13 ATS away the past four-plus seasons while San Diego enters this clash 3-6-1 spreadwise overall in its last 10 games while dating back to late in the 2009 season. Note that the Chargers are 12-18-1 ATS as betting favorites the past two-plus seasons.

PITTSBURGH (4-1) at MIAMI (3-2) - 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Now that "Big Ben"Roethlisberger is back in the proverbial saddle for the Pittsburgh Steelers, everyone wants to know if this AFC North crew has been elevated to the top of the pack in terms of being a Super Bowl contender.

No question that last week's game - a 28-10 home triumph against the two-TD underdog Cleveland Browns - showed some major rust on Roethlisberger following his league-imposed four-game suspension but WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward (only 29 receptions combined so far this season) should be kept busy against a Miami secondary that was exposed at times in last week's 23-20 OT win at Green Bay.

If the Fish are gonna snag a mild upset win here, than RB Ricky Williams (12 carries for only 31 yards in last year's season-ending 30-24 loss to Pittsburgh) must be a factor from the get-go.

Spread Notes - The Steelers are 6-11-1 against the odds as betting favorites since the start of last season. On the flip side, the Dolphins are a sickly 16-42 versus the vig at home since the start of the 2003 campaign.

PHILADELPHIA (4-2) at TENNESSEE (4-2) - 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Let's face it ... there is more intrigue in this interconference game regarding who won't be on the field here:

Philly WR/return specialist DeSean Jackson (concussion) is out after getting walloped on a helmet-to-helmet hit last weekend while Tennessee QB Vince Young is more than likely out here with a sprained knee and a sprained ankle suffered in a botched-up play in the MNF win at Jacksonville earlier in the week.

Look for Eagles QB Kevin Kolb (326 yards passing and 3 TDs in last week's 31-17 win against Atlanta) to try and lure in the Titans overactive safeties with play-action fakes here and then seek long-ball connections with WR Jeremy Maclin (25 catches for 16.6 yards a play and 6 scores).

Meanwhile, Titans QB Kerry Collins probably won't throw it more than 20 times here - if RB Chris Johnson (596 yards rushing and 7 TDs) doesn't get 30 carries here than everyone will be shocked.

Spread Notes - Tennessee is a rotten 4-7-1 versus the vig in its last dozen home games while Philadelphia marches into Nashville with a resounding 45-21 spread mark when in thee underdog role since the start of the 2000 season (folks, that's a slick .682 winning percentage).



It was the front-and-center topic in the world of the National Football League all week long - late hits, helmet-to-helmet hits and tell us how many times who heard the word "launching"used by the various media folks.

Now that the NFL has laid down the law - multiple fines levied the past few days for hits last week by Pittsburgh LB James Harrison, New England DB Brandon Meriweather and Atlanta CB Dunta Robinson all received plenty of play over the airwaves - you can fully expect the zebras to throw their flags on anything that looks head-high and/or suspicious in nature.

Heck, we won't be surprised at all if at least one NFL Week #7 game is determined by a late hit/helmet hit that won't be reviewable on instant replay.

Will it take some of the aggressive play from the league's LB's and DB's?

The answer is probably "yes"but anyone that's a good fundamental tackler won't be affected - and maybe that's what concerns so many defensive players in this league because they never did learn the fine art of tackling.

Gut feeling is if any defensive player lays an illegal hit on a defenseless receiver, etc. he's gonna wind up getting a multi-game suspension from Commish Roger Goodell.

Who's going to be the first to get nabbed?


Let's go 'round the league and get you our NFL Week #7 Pointspread Tidbits with all figures below against the spread:

  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered 12 of their last 18 home games dating back to the start of 2008;
  • The Buffalo Bills are 1-4 vig-wise to start off the 2010 season;
  • The Chicago Bears are 5-10-1 in non-divisional tilts since late '08;
  • The Cincinnati Bengals are 10-3 as underdogs since late in 2008;
  • The Denver Broncos are 6-17-1 vs. non-divisional foes;
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered six of their last seven games since late 2009;
  • The San Francisco 49ers have failed to cover five of their last six head-to-head showdowns versus Carolina;
  • And the Seattle Seahawks are 1-6 in their last seven spread verdicts when facing Arizona.

NOTE: Get the Monday Night Football Preview - that's the New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys - plus all the weekend roundups in the next edition of Jim Sez.


Today’s Hot Plays