Jim Hurley's Network reports on

COMPUTER OVERDOGS

IF YOU DON'T READ THIS REPORT IT COULD COST YOU $$THOUSANDS!
Breakthrough analysis of '08 points to an '09 that's off the charts!

In all my 24 years as head of Jim Hurley's Network, I have never seen anything THIS NEAT!

In the course of reviewing 2008 to see where we could have done better, our man/machine team made a discovery that's going to change the way you THINK about football, the way you BET it and the way you MAKE MONEY off it!

Here's what we found!

We KNEW something was going on with teams like Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and other high scoring offenses that we never saw before. These schools were not only winning but covering by big margins. Florida went 11-1 against the spread. Oklahoma was 10-2. Texas and California were 9-3. Penn State and Oklahoma State 8-3.

If we had taken the top ten spread winners and bet them all season, we (and YOU!) could have gone 91-30 for 75.2%! They were lying under our noses. COULD WE HAVE FOUND THEM LAST YEAR? Did we have an algorithm in our computer that could have given us those winners at the push of a button?

It turns out we had that program all along!

Our Alpha 111- one of our most "basic"programs - is a whiz at finding the hidden value of an underrated dog. But when we tested it against last year's record, game by game, the results were jaw dropping. It would have picked (and actually did pick) all these overdog winners!

The size of the covers says it all. These were not squeakers or nailbiters. These were lopsided laughers!

At $100 a game, you'd have cleared $5,800. At $500 a game, you'd have netted $29,000. You would have had ZERO losing weeks! IF WE HAD KNOWN! But we didn't. In fact, our own handicappers – me included – never went near those games!

Why? Because for years, we have all had it drilled into our heads that big public favorites are poor value. The public loves the Big Names so much, the sports books have to overprice them to encourage balancing action on the other side. Result: bettors who want big favorites pay a penalty while "sharps" who bet the dog get extra points. This is why most pro handicappers prefer "dog plus the points"

There's no VALUE in double digit favorites.

But Computer Overdogs have changed all that!

The numbers were so shocking we had to ask ourselves, "Are we looking at a one time fluke, or is there a long term trend involved? If so, what caused it? Is it going to be around a while? Can we count on it? Can we bet on it?" By now, thoroughly aroused and on the scent. we started looking at other seasons going back to '78 and here's what we found:

• Winning margins are way up – and growing every year
• Ditto scoring average per game. In the Big 12, it was 39.4  - up 6 pts from '07!
• The no-huddle and the spread have made offenses harder to figure and harder to stop. In '08 Oklahoma set an all-time record for points (702) and total offensive yards (7,307). And it's happening everywhere.
• The spread offense gives all the advantage to the offense
• Offensive players arrive at training camp bigger, faster, stronger and at a higher level of development.
• Blocking rules have been liberalized three times since '76, spreading out offenses even further
• kickoffs were moved back 5 yards last year, giving offenses even better field position.

Offenses have been ratcheted up all over. But the biggest influence by far are the BOWLS, especially the BCS.

• There are now 34 bowls as opposed to 19 in 1978.
• A BCS bowl game can bring in between $14 to $17 million to a team.
• Non-BCS bowls typically pay between $750,000 to $1 million to each school.
• And the exposure means more than the cash! Bowl games keep programs on the map and keep alumni endowments pouring in.
• Bowls are also the surest pathway to the NFL – and the strongest clinching argument in the recruiting wars!

Bowls have professionalized the whole game. For example, it used to be that a team's conference record was the only thing that counted toward bowl eligibility. No more. Non-conference games now count just as much. Result: schools try to schedule beatable opponents at home in their non-conference games, then win as big as possible. Look at these four examples from Opening Day last year!

• Oklahoma (-51) Chattanooga 57-2
• Texas (-24) Florida Atlantic 52-10
• Penn State (-42) Coastal Carolina 66-10
• Florida (-34) Hawaii 56-10

Sure, the bowl committees piously declare margin of victory plays no part in the selection process, but you and I know that's a crock. There's only one rule:

"RUN UP THE SCORE!"

Think I'm exaggerating? Ask Texas coach Mack Brown why he kept his QB Colt McCoy on the field with his team leading Texas A&M by 32 points in the fourth quarter of their Thanksgiving game!

Or ask Oklahoma's Bob Stoops why he let his starters play well into the 4th quarter in game after game, scoring 62, 66, 65, 61, and 62 points in their last 5! How else did Oklahoma get chosen for the BCS title game - ...even though Texas had beaten them head to head?

• Florida ran up the score because they had one loss (to Mississippi) and might need a tiebreaker.
• Texas ran up the score because they had one loss (to Texas Tech) and might need a tiebreaker
• Utah ran up the score because BYU was only a game behind them
• BYU ran up the score in case Utah faltered
• TCU ran up the score in case Utah and BYU faltered.
• Penn State ran up the score because they had a shot at the title game itself

So you see what's happening. FAVORITES ARE GIVING US MORE EXTRA POINTS THAN EVER BEFORE, because for the first time in history, we have teams so good they have no apparent weakness. They can beat other very, very good teams at will!

• They are never "looking ahead" to a more important game next week since they expect to dominate every game.
• They are not "letting down" against a non-conference opponent – when it comes to the bowls – all games count.
• Forget peaks & valleys. These are pros, putting the pedal to the metal, going all out to score every point they can

ALPHA 111 uses over 100 game parameters on offense and defense, including points, yards per point, yards per 1st down, yards per carry, passing efficiency, yards per catch, yards after the catch, red zone efficiency, 3rd and 4th down efficiency, time of possession, comeback dimension, and much more, including special teams. Let me emphasize, "Alpha" is a baseline program that does not include "intangibles," "motivations," "schedule stresses,' "series histories" et al. When two teams are compared for predictive purposes, our system output is a flat athletic number

That's why these games can be handicapped almost purely by the numbers – and that's where our computer gives us the edge..

Looking at the top offensive college teams, our ALPHA 111 program – which delivers a baseline result based purely on the athletic potential of the teams - turned out to be the only handicapping tool we needed. We didn't need genetic algorithms or fuzzy systems or anything fancy

And I got surprise backup from Vegas!

I was wondering, wasn't anybody else onto what I had just found? So I called the top consultant in Las Vegas, Jimmy Vaccaro,* to ask him how the top layers and players were handling these overdogs. His reply knocked me off my pins.

*Jimmy was head linesmaker at the Mirage, the Golden Nugget, MGM, Bally's and the Barbary Coast, was famous for never backing down off his own number and is considered, after Bob Martin, the top linesmaker of all time.

"Last season – for the first time I can remember - wise guys were laying points on heavy favorites – I mean 20-25 points without a qualm. And it wasn't because they were middling the line. They expected these favorites to win and cover. I never saw anything like that before."

It was cold water in the face. It meant we didn't have this good thing all to ourselves. BUT . . it also meant I was now getting confirmation from the top bettors in the country that I was right!

I believe it will work. I've gone over the numbers a gazillion times. I've talked to our contacts inside the sports books. I've looked at all the other promising programs where OVERDOG OFFENSES predominate – like Utah, BYU, TCU, Ball State, Tulsa, Boise State, California, LSU, Oregon, Missouri, Georgia, Nebraska. I've done my homework. Will YOU do YOURS? We uncovered a pattern which we think represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. If it works and you sign up, you will make the money of your life. And it starts right here!

P.S. PRE-SEASON GAMES ARE READY TO WIN RIGHT NOW AND THEY'RE YOURS AT NO EXTRA CHARGE!